무역전쟁이 불러올 다음 대폭락, 당신의 투자는 안전한가?
The Compound
조회수 54.7K회
분석일 06/21
1. Josh and Steve discuss Mob Land, a show they stopped watching but love Tom Hardy.
2. They recommend Peaky Blinders and the movie Havoc, praising the cast and story.
3. Steve talks about the show Godfather of Harlem, based on true stories like Bumpy Johnson.
4. They mention Timothy Olyphant, a great TV actor from Justified, and Steve plans to watch it.
5. The hosts share excitement for Steve Eisman’s appearance, praising his market insights.
6. They discuss Father’s Day, kids’ ages, and recent gifts, including a sword for Steve’s son.
7. Steve explains his son’s long sword competitions, comparing him to a samurai.
8. They talk about the potential of sending him back in time to help in Europe.
9. Steve reflects on his kids, their college plans, and his hobbies like golf and tennis.
10. They compare New York neighborhoods, with Steve from the Upper East Side, others from Merrick.
11. Steve shares his move back to Long Island and his family’s history there.
12. The podcast shifts to the sponsor ad about data center power and nuclear investments.
13. The hosts introduce episode 196, featuring Steve Eisman, famous for predicting the 2008 crisis.
14. Steve credits himself for being right about the crisis and not being a permanent bear afterward.
15. He recalls the 2007 short on subprime and the shock of the 2008 crisis, comparing it to Noah’s ark.
16. Steve discusses his realization that the government didn’t know the extent of the crisis in 2008.
17. He criticizes the Fed’s lack of awareness, citing Andrew Sorkin’s book and the AIG crisis.
18. Steve emphasizes incentives in finance, quoting Charlie Munger: "Incentives trump ethics."
19. He talks about the movie The Big Short, correcting Steve Carell’s portrayal of him.
20. Steve recounts meeting Carell and his one line contribution to the film.
21. He shares how he realized he was angrier during the 2010 Crisis Commission interview.
22. Steve explains his disgust with the mortgage industry’s shenanigans and Wall Street’s role.
23. He details the flawed teaser-rate loans and how they kept refinancing, never paying down principal.
24. Steve criticizes the incentives that led to the mortgage bubble and the role of Wall Street.
25. He discusses the importance of understanding how incentives drive behavior in finance.
26. Steve talks about the movie’s portrayal of him and the correction he made to the script.
27. He reflects on Warren Buffett’s successful buy low, sell high move during the crisis.
28. Steve comments on Apple’s reliance on China for manufacturing and the risks involved.
29. He criticizes Apple’s valuation at 35 times earnings, seeing it as a staple stock.
30. Steve discusses Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley’s recent performance and strategies.
31. He shares his view on Wells Fargo’s past scandals and current status.
32. Steve talks about the regional bank sector and the potential for M&A to boost competition.
33. They discuss private credit, its growth, and risks, noting it’s a result of Dodd-Frank.
34. Steve shares his skepticism about private credit’s stability due to unregulated lenders.
35. The hosts talk about the big banks’ market share, especially JP Morgan, and the need for M&A.
36. Steve highlights the rise of small and regional banks, and the growth of neo-banks like Chime.
37. They discuss the payments industry, Visa, Mastercard, and stable coins’ potential impact.
38. Steve explains how stable coins could be used for remittances and cross-border payments.
39. They debate how big stable coins could get and their role in the financial system.
40. Steve dismisses worries about the US deficit, citing its historical insignificance.
41. He argues the dollar’s reserve status depends on the lack of a better alternative.
42. The hosts discuss China’s holdings of US Treasuries and their stability.
43. Steve believes the US economy is resilient and that trade war fears are overblown.
44. They analyze the impact of tariffs and China’s export share declining to the US.
45. Steve points out the importance of the stock market bubble relationship with the deficit.
46. They talk about the risks of a trade war, comparing it to World War I’s unpredictability.
47. Steve recommends the book Guns of August for understanding war risks.
48. They discuss “sneakflation,” where firms gradually raise prices to offset tariffs.
49. Steve reviews Apple’s manufacturing in China and its risks from trade tensions.
50. He emphasizes Apple’s dependence on China and the potential for disruption.
51. The hosts talk about IPOs, the market’s resilience, and the impact of trade war fears.
52. Steve sees the market as resilient unless a full trade war erupts.
53. They discuss the probability of a recession and the risks of escalation.
54. Steve shares his excitement for his daughter’s upcoming wedding in New York.
55. He talks about his plans to visit Florida and help his daughter settle in college.
56. Michael mentions his last meal at Pig and Cow and the new Superman movie.
57. They debate the quality of recent comic book movies and their favorite films.
58. Steve shares his extensive comic book collection and opinions on Marvel and DC movies.
59. They discuss the future of DC movies and the challenges of the genre.
60. The podcast wraps with Steve promoting his podcast, The Real Eisman Playbook, and social media.