트럼프의 깜짝 결정! 중국, 이란산 원유 수입 허용 변화의 진실

What's your take on the oil pricesituation right now? And are you concerned?I love it.

 It dropped almost ten dollars yesterday.

I put out a statement, get it down, because a lot of people aren't able todo things when the energy goes down.

 You are going to have a lot less conflict.

President Trump there speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One.

And separately, the President has signaled he wants to keep oil flowingout of Iran.

 It's a stark departure from the earlierstrategy of squeezing Iranian energy exports to apply pressure at thenegotiating table.

 Take a look at what we're seeing when itcomes to oil.

 And it has been double digit, doublepercentage slump that we've seen over the past two days.

At the moment, we are seeing little bit of upside in the early part of the Asiansession for WTI as we continue that assessment of the cease fire.

We also had an industry report showing another drop in U.

S.

crude stockpiles there as well.

 Over those two days, you've seen thatdecline of just about 5% when it comes to New York traded crude.

At the moment, Israel and Iran appear to be honoring that cease fire brokered byPresident Trump.

 That obviously reduces that riskpremium, the risk to supplies.

 But the fragility is kind of what we'relooking at.

 But it's been quite interesting overallthat we saw Trump giving China, the biggest crude customer of Iran,essentially the green light on social media to continue buying its oil.

Is this kind of being seen as both an olive branch to Iran and also to China?Right, as we kind of restore the concentration and the focus back on tothese ongoing trade uncertainties? Yeah.

Given the uncertainty, though, you also wonder how seriously China is going totake this.

 Might they still be taking a cautiousapproach when it comes to potentially having these sanctions in play when itcomes to import of Iranian oil, Haidi.

 Yeah.

Let's get some more on the latest developments in the Middle East as thisfragile truce appears to be holding.

 For now, let's bring in Randa Slim.

She's a senior fellow at Johns Hopkins University School of AdvancedInternational Studies.

 It's been a pretty chaotic while.

It's been a pretty chaotic 12, 13 days.

 But certainly over the last 24 to 48hours, there's been a lot of to and fro and developments.

How do you assess the sort of ongoing stability of this truce and whether itcan pave the way for sort of more of a brokered ongoing peace?Well, right now it remains fragile, it's unstable.

And so far, the two countries, Israel and Iran, seem to be interested inmaintaining this truce.

 Now, whether this will lead to peace,whether this will be durable in the long term, I don't know.

It's too early to tell and to because I think Israel is interested, particularlythe Israeli prime minister is interested in making sure that Iran will not beable to reconstitute its capacity to, in the nuclear fuel.

And the based on the per military assessment from the air, the DefenseIntelligence Agency, doesn't it that the hits have dealt long, I mean, seriousdamage to the nuclear facilities, that it might have set back the nuclearprogram by a few months? But it's not something that is going tobe a sustainable damage that will prevent Iran from reconstituting orsurpass that program.

 Around.

I was looking back at previous conversation.

I think one of the last time we spoke was actually when we saw theassassination of the Hezbollah leader late last year.

We were talking about the implications for Iranian proxies.

What's your assessment of that situation now?And how does that sort of dramatically change the landscape?Because at that point, we were sort of not looking at the possibility of directconfrontation.

 Obviously, things have changed so muchsince then.

 Do we have a weakened Iran, do youthink, or do they sort of regroup and look for revenge?This is a very interesting question.

 I think the Iran proxy network,including involvement, has been weakened, seriously weakened, but it'snot out.

 They still maintain some capacities.

We don't know exactly how many missiles they still, for example, Hezbollahmaintain, but they do, according to some Israeli military estimates, about 20% ofthat of that of their missile capacity is still intact.

So they can they can they can cause serious damage.

But I think for now, their interest is to maintain a low profile and to keepwhatever capacity is, no matter how weak they are, to keep them intact and tokeep their political profile in the countries that they work and or theycurrently operate the Hezbollah in Lebanon and be the Iraqi militias thatare Iran in Iran.

 Media sources they have all looked andseen in action is military capacities, Americans, military capacities, and theydon't want to incur the wrath.

 And Iran is interested in maintainingthis network, this proxy network in place, no matter how weak and decimatedit is as it is currently and in the future will be reviewing its militarydeterrence strategy and what are going to be the components of the strategy andwhat role will this proxy network be playing in this strategy going forward?Randa, it also sounds like the regime might be a bit more focused on survivalat this stage in Iran.

 To what extent then, do you see thecease fire as a sort of window of opportunity for the conversation to beabout nuclear diplomacy? You are.

You are correct.

 I think right now the primary priority,the priority, the number one priority for the regime in time is regimesurvival.

 And all the means are going to justifyreaching that objective.

 And one of the means that that diplomatsand even the president, the Iranian president has been talking about isdiplomacy, and that this is now a battle or, you know, much larger window forengaging in negotiation.

 The question is going really to bewhether Israel and particularly the Israeli prime minister is interested inin in in stopping this conflict at this stage.

After all, the way the negotiation going on between the United States and Iranabout this nuclear program, about their nuclear program.

And those would be entered by Israeli military action against Iran.

And so the question is going to be Israel that the interests of thepolitical establishment is the prime minister.

And whether the president, the president will, you know, basically apply theright amount of pressure on the Israeli prime minister to seize any kind ofmilitary action going forward against Iran.