한국 새 대통령, 미·중 균형 잡기와 향후 정치 해설

So Noah, what does EJ Mung's victory mean for South Korea? EJ Mong's victory is a is a resounding referendum on Yunukul's failed presidency and his authoritarian power grab last December.

 EJ led the opposition to the declaration of martial law, rallying lawmakers and citizens to come out into the streets on on the very night when it was imposed.

 And then he led the efforts to impeach Yunukol in the months that followed.

 His opponent in these elections, by contrast, was a loyal minister in Yun's government who opposed his impeachment and really never fully apologized for the declaration of martial law itself.

 So with this victory, EJ has a chance to bring South Korea back from the brink to to heal a divided country.

 But he faces myriad challenges both at home and abroad.

 Before we get to the challenges, Noah, just remind me why this election was called in the first place.

 It's a great question, Rosie.

 In fact, these elections were not supposed to happen.

 The next presidential elections in South Korea were scheduled for 2027.

 But the story of of these snap elections really begins with parliamentary elections last year when EJ Mong's party, the Democratic Party, won a resounding majority and that allowed them essentially to sty the agenda of then President Yunukol.

 He in turn took a drastic and ultimately unconstitutional step by declaring martial law late on December 3rd last year.

 He sent troops to try to take over the National Assembly and basically enact a power grab to get around his political opposition.

 The citizens of South Korea did not take lightly to this.

 They have memories of military dictatorships in their notsodistant past.

 They came out on the streets to protest and lawmakers led by EJung himself rallied to vote and overturn this martial law declaration.

 President Yun was ultimately impeached and that ushered in a period of of political uncertainty, a power vacuum at top the South Korean state, a series of three acting presidents, acting acting acting presidents of of differing uh um authority.

 And finally, now uh we have a new leader with a mandate from the South Korean people.

 Um but the the question for the next phase of the story is is sort of what kind of leader exactly EJ will be.

 So what do we know about EJ Moon? What kind of leader will he be? His victory really caps an improbable personal journey.

 He was born into a deeply impoverished family.

 He had to drop out of school as a teenager and work in factories.

 Uh he trained on his own to become a lawyer.

 eventually became a kind of labor and human rights activist before entering politics and and rising to be governor of of South Korea's most populous province.

 He narrowly lost the presidential election in 2022 to former President Yun.

 And then he was stabbed in the neck during the parliamentary campaign last year by an assassin who was bent on preventing him from ever becoming president.

 And finally, he faced a a spate of criminal allegations which he has denied uh which threatened to derail his campaign this year.

 So he's really a a fighter, someone whose life and career is is defined by as as he put it himself, making the impossible possible.

 So that's an unexpected path to politics in any country, right? But particularly South Korea.

 What can we then expect of his presidency? Well, that really is is the key question as he enters office.

 He made his name essentially as a as a progressive populist.

 He was known, for example, for promising a universal basic income during the previous presidential campaign.

 He was quite critical, as Democratic Party members tend to be, of of the Conservatives foreign policy, in particular, a perceived subservience to America and and uh uh being essentially too friendly to Japan.

 Uh he was also critical of of how poor relations had gotten with China, Russia, and North Korea.

 But in recent months, he's recast himself essentially as a sensible moderate.

 Uh when I met him earlier this year along with our Asia editor Emma Hogan, he told us that the party's guiding value now is pragmatism and that's become his buzzword both for economic policy where he's talking more about market friendly reforms and also foreign policy where he's endorsed the alliance with America and even sounded positive about closer cooperation with Japan.

 However pragmatic he is, it's going to be a pretty tough gig though, isn't it? South Korea is very divided.

 The economy is battered.

 He's got a lot of things to deal with at home, hasn't he? I think the domestic issues are going to be his top priority, or at least he hopes they will be.

 The fallout from Yunyo's fiasco is is still hanging over the country.

 Yun himself is facing criminal charges for leading an insurrection, and that trial is going to play out over the coming months.

 So, there are a lot of things he needs to do to address the fallout from the last six months.

 But on top of that, he also, as you as you indicated, needs to address a really battered economy.

 Um, South Korea's projected growth has been cut quite drastically this year, both as a result of of the uncertainty at home and the tariffs that Donald Trump has imposed in America.

 And then there are sort of longer term issues that that, you know, if he has the bandwidth, really could use some attention.

 most most prominently South Korea's demographic crisis uh which is sapping its its long-term growth prospects.

 It has the lowest fertility rate of of any country in the world at at just 0.

75 births per woman.

 And Noah, as you said, he's planning to shift South Korea's foreign policy, too.

 That's right.

 And his first priority on the foreign policy side of things is almost certainly going to be America and the relationship with Donald Trump.

 There are tariffs that need to be negotiated away and South Korean industry has been hit quite hard already by the levies Donald Trump imposed on cars and steel.

 On top of that, there's a kind of crisis looming in the security relationship between South Korea and America, essentially over whether America should keep the same number of troops stationed on the Korean Peninsula as it has in the past and whether those troops should be continue to be dedicated to defending South Korea from its nuclear armed northern neighbor or whether they should be diverted to broader regional goals such as deterring China.

 And you mentioned China there.

 Some people are presenting E as pro-China.

 Is that right? I don't think that's entirely fair.

 It is the critique from the conservatives in South Korea and and even some conservatives in America who who've latched on to those narratives.

 What he's arguing for essentially is a a more balanced foreign policy, trying to maintain stable and and even cooperative economic relationships with the Chinese while also uh strengthening the alliance with America.

 The trick is that that balancing act is simply becoming harder and harder to achieve as America and China entered into a deeper and deeper confrontation.

 So the headline is he's got a lot on his plate.

 That's right, Rosie.

 There was of course a a brief sense of relief and and and even a smile crossing his face yesterday when the election results started to become clear.

 But in his speech during his inauguration, he acknowledged that South Korea faces quote a a complex web of overlapping crises in every sphere.

 So indeed a lot on his plate.

 Great to talk to you Noah.

 Thank you so much.

 Thank you for having me.