펜타곤 발표, 트럼프의 이란 공습이 실패한 충격적 진실!

The Defense Intelligence Agency says that Donald Trump's strikes may not have worked.

 He calls this news fake news reported by Even More fake news.

 In this video, I'm going to show you why it's possible Trump's strikes did not work.

 Note, this is not to take a political side, and we'll still talk about the resolution with Iran.

 The battle damage that was that resulted from those US military strikes on these three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend.

 And as you said, it was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency, which is the Pentagon's intelligence arm.

 And it is worth noting that it is a very early assessment.

 The strikes were only a matter of days ago, and the intelligence community is still gathering intelligence.

 They are still working to come up with a full comprehensive picture of what exactly happened here.

 Based on a battle damage assessment that was carried out by US Central Command, essentially looking at the images and looking at what was actually damaged, the Defense Intelligence Agency has assessed that the core components of Iran's nuclear program uh are largely intact and that Iran's nuclear program has essentially only been set back by months.

 Now, first let's understand a few things that we know about the facility.

 We know that the facility is buried about 80 ft deep.

 uh sorry 80 m deep which works out to about 200 ft deep.

 That's quite a bit.

 We also know roughly where the facility uh is in terms of its underground layouts likely because of previous satellite images when these facilities were built.

 We had some of these air vents that were assembled and built and you could see via the concrete exactly where different components of the structures were.

 So, historical satellite images plus potentially on the ground espionage could help us with uh targeting our our strikes here on these various different facility uh facilities throughout Iran, including Espahan, which is where we believe the uh 15 different canisters of highlyenriched uranium might be stored.

 the Natans nuclear enrichment facility which has a re very relatively lowlevel underground uh facility and then you've got the Ford deep underground nuclear enrichment facility.

 Now uh NASA did capture uh fire or sort of heat signatures in Iran when the Ford nuclear facility was struck and you see that in that little flicker right here of a heat.

 So we know that the area was struck.

 We obviously saw the holes after the fact.

 We know the area has been hit.

 We know that ventilation shafts were the target.

 You could see these images here.

 Uh you could see holes here from multiple uh 30,000lb bunker busting bombs being dropped roughly where uh these ventilation shafts are.

 Keeping in mind that a 30,000lb bomb is really not a 30,000lb bomb.

 It's about a 25,000lb casing sort of thing, shell around a bullet.

 And then the actual bomb itself is about a 5,000 lb munition, which is still pretty dang significant.

 And when we look at the impact points overlaid here, we believe that these areas right here were the target uh of the strike.

 Now, this looks perfectly aligned.

 We see the ventilation shafts.

 We see the holes on the surface.

 We see what looks like concrete dust on the surface.

 And it's reasonable to assume that if we hit the ventilation shaft, the bomb would drop directly to this level and explode.

 The problem unfortunately with bunker busting bombs is the level or should I say the third third dimension of dropping a bomb.

 You know, when we strike something in Esvahan like some kind of building, we know where it is.

 We can see with satellite imagery that we've targeted it and all we really have to achieve is this twodimensional strike point, right? We really only need to hit uh the the uh in this case the xaxis uh and the you know we'll call it in this case the y-axis we'll say is over there that 2D x and y coordinate.

 That's all we have to hit.

 the problem.

 You don't really care about the third dimension, your Z-axis, because you know what's the building? 10 feet tall, 20 feet tall.

 Who cares? You're gonna strike it.

 It's going to hit and it's going to blow and the whole thing's going to be gone.

 Very easy.

 Okay.

 Well, the problem with something like an 80 meter bunker busting bomb is that even if you know that the enrichment tunnel uh is connected, you know, let's say you have your ventilation shaft over here and then you've got uh well, let's draw it sort of like this way as if it's a cross-section because this is our, you know, tunnel down here.

 Okay, even if we know these are the ventilation shafts right here and then you've got this sort of perpendicular hallway where the centrifuges are.

 I'll just put C for centrifuge.

 You still need that 30,000 lb bomb to actually get down.

 And if you detonate here or here or here or here or here or even here, the odds of you actually damaging the area that you're trying to target here with a blast is low.

 Yes, you are going to cause damage to the ventilation shaft, but did you actually destroy that centrifugal equipment? What CNN is suggesting is that they have a leaked Directorate of National Intelligence report that suggests we only did minimal damage to this facility.

 Now, at CNN, they their goal, of course, because it's it's good viewership for their viewers, is to make Trump look bad.

 And when you look at Fox, their goal is to make Trump look good because Trump likes hiring people from Fox News.

 Fox gets a lot of views from people who want to hear good things about far about Trump.

 And uh CNN gets a lot of views from people who want to hear bad things about Donald Trump.

 So this makes sense.

 Keeping in mind though this little graphic we're drawing here.

 When you explode one of these bunker busting bombs, which is really a 5,000lb bomb in rock and you miss probably by a radius of about 10 meters.

 So call it about a 30 foot radius here.

 your damage to the actual structure will be very very little.

 And that's I think why we dropped as many bunker busting bombs as we did.

 Six holes reportedly up to 14 bombs.

 Some of them dropped into the same holes likely to try to hit various different depths because it wasn't really a matter of hitting the shaft.

 It was a matter of hitting the depth that Z-axis.

 And it is possible that we failed.

 This alleged assessment is flatout wrong and was classified as top secret, but was still leaked to CNN by an anonymous low-level loser in the intelligence community.

 The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran's nuclear program.

 Everyone knows what happens when you drop 14 30,000lb bombs perfectly on their targets.

 Total obliteration.

 Now, our bombing campaign obliterated Iran's ability to create nuclear weapons.

 Our massive bombs hit exactly the right spot at each target and worked perfectly.

 The impact of those bombs is buried under a mountain of rubble in Iran.

 So, anyone who says the bombs were not devastating uh uh is just trying to undermine the president and the successful mission.

 Now, our sources did emphasize here that there was uh severe damage that was done largely to the above ground structures at these nuclear sites.

 Uh and so there was damage done of course by these massive bombs.

 But the core components of the nuclear program we are told they are largely intact and it only set the program back by a matter of months.

 Now the question that really matters is does it matter if we devastated these centrifugal hallways or not? Iran right now is in a position where they're arguing, at least some politicians in Iran are arguing, we will never allow weapons inspectors or IAEA inspectors into Iran again.

 This would be really bad.

 What you really need is you need uh a uh new JCPOA.

 It's not going to be called that.

 We've talked about that before, but you need a new JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

 We'll call it 2.

0.

 Uh we'll call it the uh uh the MAGA Peace Plan.

 Okay? guarantee.

 It has to include IAEA inspections.

 And in this case, it doesn't really matter if the site's damaged or not because inspections are going to be looking and keeping track of uh the canisters of highly uh enriched uranium.

 Uh there we go.

 Just AI tab that.

 That's kind of nice.

 Uh that's what we're looking for.

 But we're also looking for that centrifugal equipment which as part of a peace plan we would expect Iran to go to zero enrichment.

 Uh and they really need to probably outsource their peaceful nuclear program or uh give up the plutonium uh remnants of uh their peaceful program.

 These are really going to be components of a JCPOA 2.

0 you know, as well as, you know, reduced uh sanctions, uh, you know, some form of demand that, uh, Iran reduced funding for Houthies and terror groups, obviously, uh, you know, allowed oil exports, etc.

, right? Uh, this this is probably a rough framework of what you would expect to be incorporated into a new peace plan.

 A ceasefire doesn't do this.

 you know, a ceasefire is really just stop shooting, you know, for for now and then and then let's talk.

 Okay, this is what needs to be talked about.

 Now, the real problem with Iran right now is that Iran has already rejected the idea of we will go to zero enrichment.

 Now, they rejected that before US strikes.

 And this is where the US strikes could matter because so far it looks like the US strikes uh ushered in a ceasefire for now.

 If our strikes failed at Fordo, is it possible the ceasefire falters and uh this uh this conflict resumes? Yes, that's possible.

 But you really you do still have a reality where uh it is possible our strikes failed at Fordo and the ceasefire holds.

 That's also a possibility.

 And this this is what I would hope.

 So my hope is that even if we we we were not perfect on our FDO Fordo depth and you know the concrete dust we saw or whatever was simply ventilation shaft dust and the centrifugal hallways are fine.

 Presumably they had blast doors between these hallways as well, right? So keep that in mind.

 If you have blast doors uh you know maybe here, here and here because they presumed that if they were ever attacked that they would be attacked through the ventilation shaft then what good does that really do you? Well, potentially not much.

 I believe it's possible that even if our strikes failed, that ceasefire talks could hold.

 If they don't, uh then yes, uh Iran could rush towards uh uh you know, further uh bomb making and and this really uh likely results in a protracted conflict uh in the Middle East.

 So my hope is that my hope and what we're seeing now is strikes uh succeeding or failing doesn't matter.

 Uh the symbology is clear.

 Uh US demands peace and uh we're willing to drop bombs until we get it.

 It's very much the stick of the carrot and stick, right? So hopefully it doesn't matter.

 Now CNN's probably going to have a field day with this information that, you know, was leaked to them or whatever.

 And we saw Carolyn Love it, you know, freak out here or whatever.

 But again, my hope is that it doesn't matter.

 I see some of your comments you say, you know, why don't we send like commandos in or, you know, Seal Team 6 or whatever.

 Well, first of all, the facility is probably buried right now.

 The exterior of the facility, these tunnel entrances were covered uh by uh rocks and dirt uh purposefully to seal the facility in by the Iranians in the days leading up to the bombing.

 Uh and getting into these ventilation shafts will be really difficult.

 So, how they're getting this intelligence analysis of how much damage we did or didn't do, I don't know.

 you know, it could be based on, you know, some surface analysis or who knows, maybe they've got some kind of deep sonar that they can use or whatever or they do have somebody who's been able to get on the ground and and explore this.

 I I don't know.

 Who knows, right? But I don't again think it makes a difference.

 I think what you really need is to stop uh the the uh this you know the hostilities between the two and and just use this as an opportunity to get back to talks because whether or not the facility is destroyed I don't think matters because the nuclearenriched material to help make a bomb was removed from Esphahan before the bombings and if they could use that to make a weapon maybe maybe they're already done enriching and they could make the bomb that they need and want without these facilities.

 I did on the day of these strikes question and I remember saying you know Donald Trump's going to tell us like this was a great and huge success after we heard that the strikes occurred and before we heard uh that you know the press conference that's really predictable but you always have to take what Trump says with a little bit of a grain of salt because everything he does is a great and huge success.

 But I do think there is some clear frustration with Donald Trump and it's entirely possible that this facility is not completely destroyed.

 In fact, these centrifugal halls could be entirely intact still.

 Uh but again, the hope is as long as we can monitor and control the ceasefire, it may not matter because we symbolically showed we're willing to get involved.

 And if we need to drop more, I don't think Trump will be opposed to dropping more.

 The bigger issue that you end up having is, you know, Israel, a nuclear power, ends up dropping a strategic nuke onto a location.

 Uh, and and then you really get the loss of life, and that's when things go really poopy really fast.

 So, uh, that's that's my opinion.

 Uh, uh, somebody here says, "You would think it would have fortified concrete.

" Yeah, I mean, that's why you use a 30,000lb bomb to fly through that kind of stuff, right? I mean, that's these these are really heavy.

 Uh, so let's see here.

 Somebody says, "Check out AP news.

" You know, it's it'd be useful if you gave me like on what AP has a lot of news.

 Let's see here.

 Somebody else says, "Think of Iran as a big whack-a-o in where mobility is what really matters, meaning they could pop out of everywhere.

" Well, that's to some extent true.

 We do track them very closely with satellite imagery, which does make it a little bit harder for uh Iran to just build tunnels anywhere they want and get away with it.

 Uh Netanyahu says that Israel bought uh brought Iran's nuclear program to ruin here.

 This is your live blog on AP.

 Uh after US air strikes on Iran, Trump told BB not to expect further offensive military action.

 White House officials said and US strikes on Iran.

 Trump told BB not to expect further Okay, we just read that.

 They've written that twice now.

 Secretary of State makes Iran related phone call with various foreign ministers.

 Okay.

 Yeah, big deal.

 Probably damaged at least.

 Well, I mean, yes, certainly the ventilation shaft is gone.

 You're going to you're going to need a new one of those, right? There's no doubt about that.