Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse.

 Today we're going to be discussing why alt season has not happened yet.

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 Let's go ahead and jump in.

 So, this is actually going to be part two.

 Uh we did a video exactly on this topic four months ago, right? Why has alt season not happened? And so we're going to be making some comparisons to that video and seeing what progress, if any, uh that the altcoin market has made.

 Um so one of the things to first consider when talking about something like this is we have to define what it is we're even talking about.

 If you only went by what Twitter influencers told you, you probably would have assumed that we'd already be in our 700th alt season for this cycle.

 But what really alt season is is it's the constant devaluation of Bitcoin dominance while the altcoin market is going up on its USD pair.

 If you look here at the last two alt seasons that we've had, we had one in 2017 and then of course we had one over here in late 2020 and early 2021.

 So this is what you would characterize as alt season.

 You will notice though that over the last few years we have not seen this in any way.

 In fact, just like the 2018 2019 cycle, you can see that Bitcoin dominance has instead gone up.

 So, if we look at this very closely, you can see you have your period where Bitcoin dominance collapses.

 That's what people call alt season, right? So, this is alt season there in 2017.

 And then you also had an alt season here in 2021.

 And then you can see you have something different, right? You have this period where Bitcoin dominance goes up.

 Now that is not alt season, right? This period right here was not alt season.

 And this period has not been all season.

 This is called Bitcoin season, right? And Bitcoin season is very different than altcoin season.

 Now, there's a couple of things to consider here because this is it's easy for people to, you know, do the what about in the comment section.

 What about this? What about that? In alt season, it doesn't mean that Bitcoin can't go up.

 Just like in Bitcoin season, it doesn't mean that Bitcoin can't go down.

 All this means, all this period right here means is that altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin in alt season, right? Altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin.

 In Bitcoin season, what that means is that no matter no matter the direction of Bitcoin USD, Bitcoin dominance will go up.

 So, it doesn't matter if Bitcoin USD goes up, it doesn't matter if it goes down, Bitcoin dominance will likely go up.

 So, you're probably better off with Bitcoin, right, during that period.

 Now, that does not mean that you can't make money trading some altcoins.

 There have been some altcoins that have done really, really well uh throughout various parts of the cycle.

 There are not that many altcoins that have done that well throughout the entire cycle against Bitcoin.

 You might find an altcoin that did well against Bitcoin in say like 2022, 2023, but a lot of the ones that did well against Bitcoin back then started to fade when we got to 2024 and 2025.

 Or some of the altcoins that did very poorly in 2022 and 2023, maybe they started to do better against Bitcoin in 2024 and 2025.

 But the problem is that while there's liquidity rotating from certain altcoin sectors to other altcoin sectors, Bitcoin dominance has gone up no matter what.

 So, what we really want to talk about now is what causes Bitcoin season and then what causes alt season and why why have so many people this cycle been wrong, right? Why have there been so many premature calls for alt season? Well, there's a couple of things we can talk about, right? First of all, there's the chart, which if you don't know what I'm going to talk about, then you must be living in a cave because I've talked about it probably over a thousand times over the last few years.

 So, there's the chart, which arguably tells you everything you need to know, and then there are the narratives that we can assign, right? So the chart is total 3 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin.

 Now before we go too far in this chart, we have to say well yes I understand there are other charts we could look at.

 For instance, we could look at total 3 minus USDT minus USDC minus D minus all the other stable coins that are out there and then divide that by Bitcoin.

 We could do that.

 In fact, Trading View recently added I believe it's total total ES bitcoin or what is it total uh is it oh it's total three es bitcoin.

 So this is the ratio of total market cap excluding bitcoin e and stable coins.

 This is a great chart to look at and it's basically a very similar chart as the one that we've been talking about.

 The reason why I'm not spending that much time talking about this chart, although I probably will talk about it more in the future, is that we've been spending so much time looking at this chart just for the sake of completeness.

 I want to follow it through for the sake of completeness, right? Get off my back.

 I understand there are other ways we can look at this.

 We can also add in other stable coins.

 And if you add in, for instance, USDC, right? If we go in here and and and subtract out USDC, you can see that well, I guess I misspelled it.

 Um, cryp crypto cap.

 I guess I'm still misspelling it.

 Um, oh, if you look at it like this, you'll notice that maybe all Bitcoin pairs are further down, right? rather than being at 31, maybe they're actually at 28.

 The reason why that's important is because there's this theory that we've talked about for the last 3 to four years and and that is that altcoins are oscillators at best.

 I believe I've spoken about this since 2019 when I started my YouTube channel.

 We've been looking at charts like this or, you know, this one or something similar to it.

 And the idea is that no matter how great you think your altcoin is, right? Well, maybe I'm not talking about your alt, but no matter how great you think your friend's altcoin might be, there is this reality that it's probably going to be an oscillator at best against Bitcoin.

 Meaning that when you look at lows for the altcoin market, you'll notice that the altcoin market before the alt season of 2017 hit 0.

25 and before the alt season of 2020 and 2021 also hit 0.

25.

 In fact, we actually saw that go down to8 in December of 2020.

 But the point is is that before the alt season of 2017 and before the alt season of 2021, alt Bitcoin pairs, meaning the relative valuation of altcoins against Bitcoin, went to 25% of Bitcoin's market cap.

 That's what 0.

25 means.

 So the collective altcoin market was worth 25% of Bitcoin's market cap.

 So for the past four years throughout this entire phase I've been trying to convince people that this is not alt season because the altcoin market while it has slowly gone down it has not gone down to 25% of Bitcoin's market cap.

 It doesn't mean it has to get all the way there exactly especially if you include other stable coins although I think there's a really good chance that it will.

 My only point is that a lot of people could have saved themselves a lot of pain this cycle if they had just looked at this chart and assumed that this time was not different.

 That does not mean you shouldn't have bought any other any other cryptocurrencies throughout the last few years.

 Obviously, there have been trades to make obviously and we've talked about some of those.

 But the point is, had you kept your crypto portfolio primarily Bitcoinheavy, you probably would have outperformed a majority of the altcoin market, especially when you look at the collective last four years because Bitcoin is basically pushing near new all-time highs while the altcoin market is nowhere near it.

 So if you go back and look at this video we did 4 months ago, you can see that back then total 3 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin was at.

37.

 Today it's at 31.

 Right? So it's making the journey that the journey is continuing to the downside.

 Now where it gets tricky is exactly right now.

 And I I've talked a lot about this over the last few months that there's sort of two paths that I foresee for the altcoin market against Bitcoin.

 One path is to just rip the band-aid off, right? Which honestly would probably be the preferable path even for a lot of viewers, right? Just rip the band-aid off, like get it over with, right? That would be the preferable path where the altcoin market against Bitcoin just simply goes to the range lows and we stop playing this game of where it just slowly goes down.

 In fact, you can see that it started potentially to break down from this trend line here.

 Also note that in 2019, just a few months before quantitative tightening ended, the altcoin market also went down to the range lows against Bitcoin.

 And it went to the range lows by September of 2019.

 You'll notice that with Bitcoin dominance, a lot of the major pivot points in Bitcoin dominance are actually in September, right? So, if you look back over here last cycle, you can see this that was September right there.

 If you go look at um you know sort of this low that was a September low.

 If you look at the high in 2019 it occurred actually in September.

 This low right here was also in September.

 So there's a decent chance that Bitcoin dominance could continue up into September and then potentially find at least a local top.

 right now.

 The only way that's going to happen is if the altcoin market against Bitcoin continues to drop to the range lows.

 The reason we can't be sure of that outcome is because if you look at 2024, you can see that the altcoin market found a low in June.

 And if you look at 2023, you can see that the altcoin market against Bitcoin, right? against Bitcoin found a low in June with then another low in late October, early November, right? So, it's not lost on me that we're at a similar position now where the altcoin market against Bitcoin has bled a lot over the last, you know, 6 months or so.

 And I would love nothing more than for the altcoin market to just go to the range lows and rip the band-aid off so we can start talking about something else.

 But I also am open-minded to the idea of just a continuation of what we saw the last couple years where we just kind of hang around and then the altcoin market doesn't roll over again until November.

 In fact, if you look at Bitcoin dominance, one of the things that we have called for for a while is for Bitcoin dominance to hit 66%.

 And it actually did that just a couple of days ago, right? And 66% roughly corresponds to the 786.

 That doesn't mean that Bitcoin dominance can't go higher than 66%.

 But you can see there have been plenty of times where Bitcoin dominance when it hits one of these fib levels, it kind of stalls out for a little while before eventually continuing higher.

 And it's possible that this time is not different.

 Okay.

 So, you could argue that the main reason that alt season has not started is just simply because altcoins have never become devalued enough to the point where people truly gave up.

 I think this cycle a lot of people pretended to give up on the altcoin market uh to sort of then say, well, now alt season, you know, they would argue that alt season had arrived.

 But a lot of people didn't truly give up.

 They just sort of pretended to.

 Um, but at the end of the day, we all represent the market.

 Now, the reason I've gone on and on about Bitcoin dominance this cycle and trying to tell people to keep their expectations in check as it relates to alt season is because of my experiences last cycle, right? Just sort of acknowledging that, hey, this trend to the downside for altcoins on their Bitcoin pairs can actually go on far longer than people think it can.

 And until altcoins truly get devalued to the point where everyone's given up on them, you know, you should not really expect an alt season to occur, right? There's other ways that we can look at this chart.

 One of my favorite ways that I don't talk about that much, but it's Bitcoin dominance plus ETH dominance plus USDT dominance plus USDC dominance.

 This metric tends to top out at around 82%.

 And you can see that it's around that level again.

 The alt season last cycle though didn't actually start until this metric broke all the way above 82%.

 Right? It actually finally broke through and went all the way up to almost 90%.

 Right? So there's a chance that you know the altcoin market just gets rejected or sorry not the altcoin mark that this metric gets rejected back down only to find support at the bull market support band and then go up and it could correspond with you know sort of a local top by bitcoin dominance around that 66 to 67% level.

 Maybe it cools off a little bit for a couple of months and then gets another run up a little bit later this year.

 But you can see that the alt season last cycle did not occur until we broke through 82% and then it was on the other side of that that the alt season actually occurred.

 So these are the charts that support why alt season has not occurred.

 You could argue the chart tells you everything you need to know, right? Total three minus USDT divided by Bitcoin has not gone to the range lows and therefore the expectation of an alt season over the last few years was very premature.

 In fact, expecting alt season over the last few years was basically admitting to yourself that you thought this time was different because the last two alt seasons that occurred didn't even occur until after altcoins went to their range lows against Bitcoin collectively.

 Now, there's things that we can try to identify as to what needs to happen for this to actually play out.

 One of the things that I've gone on and on and on about this cycle is that last cycle we know that all Bitcoin pairs hit 0.

25 when the Fed ended quantitative tightening.

 Now, am I suggesting that the Fed is watching your altcoin to try to figure out what they're going to do with monetary policy? Absolutely not.

 But I do think the crypto market one of its main use cases is just to help us to identify liquidity conditions, especially in the altcoin market, right? It helps us to identify liquidity conditions and maybe how the average consumer is holding up.

 And so you could argue that if if and when all Bitcoin pairs were to reach 0.

25, that might be a signal of the overall retail consumer.

 uh that you probably could find other signals elsewhere, but that also might happen to correspond to the Fed ending quantitative tightening.

 Now, what's interesting is it's almost July, right? It's almost July of 2025.

 In 2019, all Bitcoin pairs were at the same valuation in July.

 Okay? And it only took a month or two for them to go to the range lows, right? I mean by August they were at 0.

26 26, right? That's only that's like a month and a half, not even a month and a half from now, right? Like five or five to six weeks from now, they would have been at the range lows in 2019, just a few months.

 So that that drop occurred just a few months before um before quantitative tightening ended.

 And so when you look at a chart like this, no one knows when all Bitcoin pairs are going to go to 0.

25.

 But I can say with a clear conscience that over the last few years I have expected this and I still expect it and and you can see that even last week all Bitcoin pairs put in a new low.

 So quantitative tightening has not actually ended.

 The other thing that you could argue is interest rates, right? Obviously, interest rates have an effect on the economy.

 And so, you could look at interest rates and say, well, you know, last cycle when the Fed cut interest rates, we know that all Bitcoin pairs found that low.

 Yes, they swept it about a year and a half later, but they still bottomed out for the most part, right? So, why this time did we not see the same thing, right? Because you can see that the Fed started to cut rates, but all Bitcoin payers kept going down.

 I think the argument for this is that there's this thing we've talked about a lot called RAR.

 RAR is the neutral rate.

 Okay.

 So the neutral rate basically is whenever the Fed funds rate is above the neutral rate, it means the economy is slowing down.

 And whenever the Fed funds rate is below the neutral rate, it means the economy is going to start expanding and accelerating.

 The argument here is that interest rates might still be too high and they might be above the neutral rate.

 I think Powell certainly thinks that the Fed funds rate is above the neutral rate because he's trying to slow things down.

 So if the Fed funds rate is above the neutral rate, that could be the other reason why rate cuts this cycle have not had the same effect that they had last cycle.

 In fact, if you were to look at a ratio, and we've talked about this more than a few times, last cycle, all Bitcoin pairs started to do well after the Fed had cut 75 basis points.

 But we know that this cycle, the Fed has already cut 100 basis points.

 So, why has this cycle not played out like last cycle in terms of rate cuts? Well, that's a great question, and I'm glad you asked it, right? Reason I think is because last cycle the terminal rate was 250 basis points, right? It was 250.

 But this cycle the terminal rate was 550.

 So this does not actually equal each other.

 In fact, in order for us to have the same ratio of rate cuts to the terminal rate as last cycle, we'd have to solve instead of putting 100 here, you solve for x.

 Right? Now, fortunately for us, we've got access to wolf alpha right here.

 So, we can just say 75 / 250 = x / 550.

 We've gone through this exercise before.

 I believe the answer is 165.

 It is 165.

 So, what that means is that you could argue that if the Fed were to cut another 65 basis points, it might start to mimic what happened last cycle in terms of all Bitcoin pairs, but we haven't reached that point yet, right? And as far as I can tell, it doesn't look like we're going to get a rate cut at the July meeting either.

 It looks like we have a 75% chance that the Fed's going to hold rates constant.

 It looks like the next rate cut might occur in September.

 What's interesting about that is we know that historically Bitcoin dominance finds pivot points in December.

 So, what if all Bitcoin pairs just bleed to the range lows by September and then the Fed cuts and by that point interest rates interest or rate cuts might mimic that of the last cycle at least relative to the terminal rate.

 So I think I I think base case here for Bitcoin dominance, you might see it find some resistance at around the 66 to 67% level.

 But considering that all Bitcoin pairs remain off the range lows, I think the base case has to be that by September they're likely going to be lower than they are right now.

 Just like when we made this video 4 months ago, they're at.

37.

 They're 006 lower now.

 Perhaps by the next video in 4 months or 3 months there'll be another 0.

06 lower which would then have you have all Bitcoin pairs at 0.

25 which has been the destination I've been talking about all along.

 Further proof that we're in the phase of the cycle that we were back over here in this part of the market cycle right here.

 Further proof that it's the same thing is by looking at the advanced decline index of the top 100 cryptocurrencies.

 I'm not going to read the whole description.

 If you want to pause the video and read this, you can.

 But the advanced decline index basically helps us get an idea if the asset class in general is going up or if it's in general going down or is it like what's actually making the asset class go up.

 If you look since 2021, the advanced decline index has actually been going down despite the fact that total market cap has been going up.

 What this means is that only a few cryptocurrencies are even responsible for the uptrend in the overall market cap of the cryptoverse.

 If you look at this video that we did back over here, I'm not sure if I can if I can find a spot where you can see the USD valuations of look at these altcoins right here.

 Like Salana 4 months ago was at 193.

 Where is Salana now? Right? Even though Bitcoin is basically near all-time highs, where is Salana now? It's at 143.

 Let's go back.

 Where was Where was Ethereum? 2700.

 Where is Ethereum today? 2400.

 Where was um Avalanche? $25.

 Where is Avalanche today? Do I even have it on here anymore? Um probably not $25, but I don't know what it's at.

 Um here it is.

 $17.

 Right.

 So, a lot of these altcoins are just so much lower.

 Look at Madic.

 It's at 30 cents back then.

 Where is it today? 17 cents.

 So, you can see what's happening is that Bitcoin is sucking liquidity out of the altcoin market.

 But a lot of influencers keep trying to convince their followers that alt season is around the corner.

 So, what ends up happening is people keep throwing all their money in altcoins.

 the altcoins, then the liquidity from the altcoin market just gets absorbed into Bitcoin.

 And so people not only are they watching the USD valuation of a lot of their altcoins go down, they're also watching the Bitcoin valuation of a lot of their altcoins go down.

 So they took on more risk by buying the altcoins in the first place and then got less of a reward.

 So this is a process that has gone on for a very, very long period of time.

 And you can just see in general how many altcoins have gone through, you know, this process where they just keep on bleeding.

 And you can go look at a lot of these USD valuations above of these alts and see just how much lower today they were they are than they were back then.

 So that is the reason, right? I mean like the reason is because all Bitcoin pairs have not gone to the range lows.

 I don't think all Bitcoin pairs are going to durably find a bottom until monetary policy sufficiently changes.

 monetary policy can't sufficiently change right now because pal even admitted whether he's right or not who knows but he already admitted that one of the reasons is because they're worried about the inflation the inflation that might come due to the tariffs I don't know if we're going to see that or not for the last several years I've been in the disinflationary camp but there's a part of me that thinks hey maybe there will be a little bit of a spike due to the tariffs but even if there is I don't really think it's going to be that sustain I don't really think this is the 1970s where you had multiple waves of inflation.

 I think that the Fed is worried about something that might end up coming true very briefly, but there is a part of me that thinks that they're waiting and they would have already been cutting rates had tariffs not occurred.

 And so, what if the tariffs don't have that same inflationary effect or or to the to the extent that they think, which causes them to wait too long? Okay.

 Here's a good analogy.

 Think about if you're holding a whip, okay? And when you first move the whip, the things that are closest to your grip, that's the part of the whip that goes up first.

 So, think about Bitcoin, right? Think about the NASDAQ.

 Those those things that people are pretty sure are going to be around even if we do get a very a very bad macro outcome, right? Okay, so those things go up first and then as the whip continues to go, the riskier stuff starts to go up, right? So then you'll start to see some altcoins move, right? And even if you look at all Bitcoin pairs, you can see that here in in November of 2024 and November of 2023, all Bitcoin pairs started to get a rally.

 You see that? But why didn't it continue? because arguably Jerome Powell came in and grabbed the whip before it could get that last move up where the stuff at the very far end of the risk curve gets that move to the upside.

 Obviously, I'm not blaming Jerome Pal.

 I actually think he's done a pretty decent job so far.

 I do think they're starting to get a little bit behind, though.

 I think you could justify some rate cuts at this point considering, you know, that the unemployment rate is it's settled at around 4.

2 and it's probably going to start going higher again soon.

 I think they might want to get ahead of that.

 Um, but they're not.

 I mean, they're not.

 And and maybe I'm wrong.

 Like maybe the unemployment rate isn't going to go higher, but you can see that last year, this is around the time when the unemployment rate did start to go higher, right? it was, you can see there was some consolidation and then as we got into the summer, the unemployment rate went up.

 So, there's been this consolidation and I just wonder if we're basically gearing up for another leg higher in the unemployment rate.

 One of the things to also consider is that the next time that all Bitcoin pairs get a more durable rally might not be until the same time as the last two years, right? where they had a rally, but the rally didn't actually start really until late October or November.

 That was when this rally started.

 Look at that.

 Late October, early November.

 And that was when this rally started.

 Late October, early November.

 In 2017, the alt season that occurred started in early November.

 Late October, early November.

 If you look at the daily time frame, I believe that wick was early November, even though the weekly candle was late October.

 So, what are the chances that that's how it plays out? You basically just have a slow bleed by all Bitcoin pairs down either into September and or November and then they maybe get a bounce from that level.

 But the thing is, in order for that to happen, in order for that bounce to occur, you probably need more rate cuts, which very well might be coming by September and October.

 And you probably need an end to quantitative tightening, which also could happen, right? They've al they've slowed it down.

 You can just look at this chart here and tell that they've been slowing it down.

 But the problem for the people that keep celebrating the slowdown in quantitative tightening is that just because they're slowing down QT doesn't mean the wind has stopped blowing in the wrong direction for all coins.

 Okay? So maybe the wind isn't blowing as strongly, but it's still blowing in the wrong direction for all coins.

 Okay? And and that's the point.

 And and you could even argue had they kept up the same pace of QT, maybe this bleed wouldn't have been so painfully slow.

 Perhaps it would have already gone down here had QT not sort of trailed off here when they slowed it down.

 So they're trying to extend the runway for as long as they can.

 QT does continue.

 The main things that you need for altcoins to durably outperform Bitcoin, and by durably I mean for like a few months at the most, would be an end to quantitative tightening, probably more rate cuts.

 You're likely not going to get those right now.

 doesn't mean that altcoins can't ever bounce against Bitcoin again.

 They have the last couple of years around June, but I'm in the camp of why not just rip the band-aid off if we can and and see all Bitcoin pairs go to the range lows by September.

 Other convenient narratives of course are the ETF flows.

 You have, you know, you have Micro Strategy obviously buying Bitcoin, but you had Micro Strategy buying Bitcoin last cycle and you still ended up getting a period where altcoins outperformed Bitcoin for a few months.

 So I I think that what's really going on is it's the same thing that happened last cycle.

 The only difference is that the process is taking longer to play out.

 The process is taking longer to play out, but it's the same thing.

 It's the same exact thing that I remember from 2018 and 2019.

 It's just taking place over basically what feels like the entire market cycle.

 So, I hope that this video has helped you understand, you know, why this this cycle feels different to you.

 It's because, again, if you look at the advanced decline index, we've only seen this chart go down since 2021.

 We also saw the chart go down until January 2020.

 What happened in 2020 that caused this chart to go up? We had a lot of rate cuts and we had a lot of money printing.

 That's when everything was going up.

 But this cycle, we have not had many rate cuts and we have not seen an end to QT.

 And that's why this cycle looks a lot different than the last one.

 Last cycle, basically everything was going up.

 This cycle it's primarily Bitcoin and a few altcoins.

 And because of monetary policy, but more specifically because all Bitcoin pairs remain well off the range lows.

 That is the reason why alt season has not happened yet.

 I think sometime later this year we likely will see all Bitcoin pairs probably around 0.

25.

 When we see that we'll do an updated video.

 But until then, make sure you subscribe, give the video a thumbs up, and again check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.

com.

 I'll see you guys next time.

 Bye.