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Here's a complete summary of everything that Jerome Powell said today.

 A few quick notes first.

 He did not mention the Philadelphia Fed survey or the conference board surveys.

 In case you didn't hear those, the Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing uh so think services survey indicated weaker employment, weaker revenues, but more optimism.

 And really what I noticed in the chart was if you drew sort of a red line across the chart, there really only been two prior times where we've been in a situation where both of these lines, future activity and current activity are below the red line.

 COVID uh and then briefly in 2022 as we started raising rates and stocks were falling off a cliff.

 Somewhat interesting to see this on the Philly Fed survey because you kind of also saw some of these hints in the Conference Board survey.

 Uh again, neither of which Powell mentioned, but I think some of the things he talked about are starting to indicate he's getting a little closer to to the realization that uh crap, we're gonna have to cut rates pretty soon.

 Cuz look at the conference board survey.

 Here are the numbers on the conference board survey.

 But what matters in my opinion is is not just that confidence came in lower than expected, lower than prior, present situation lower than prior, and expectations lower than prior.

 What matters is right here.

 Confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May's sharp gains.

 Expectations on consumer short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions fell to 69, substantially below the threshold of 80.

 That typically typically signals a recession ahead.

 The cutoff date for the data was June 18th.

 So the data was collected between June 9th and 18th.

 So in fairness, you've got a little bit of a headache involved in there.

 Not too much towards the end.

 Uh regarding the strikes by Israel on Iran, we'd be looking somewhere at uh yeah, kind of dur during during that period, maybe half of the data would have been affected by some of the concerns over Israel Iran.

 So it's unclear how much obviously impact that would have on the survey.

 But you do notice, you know, it's it's a recessionary confidence board survey and Philadelphia Fed survey this morning was a little weak.

 Yesterday, we also had a little bit of a weak one.

 So, when we put this together, it might make sense why we're starting to see some of this shift in some of the Fed commentary.

 Remember that on Friday, we heard Governor Waller say, you know, we might want to cut in July, a little sooner than expected.

 Yesterday we had heard Bowman and Goulby both echoed it that and today Hammock came out also on the Fed uh suggesting that the latest inflation readings are encouraging and and now this is the fourth Fed official in 3 days to pitch hey inflation's low maybe we should cut rates.

 This is odd.

 Like this is a really odd sudden Fed flip that's building and it's getting worse and worse I feel like by the day.

 Hammock says that the labor market seems stable right now but immigration restrictions could end up being a barrier to growth in the medium term which could lead to a rise in the unemployment rate and again the Fed needing to cut.

 Now, something that I see in comments is people mistake the Federal Reserve reducing rates with money printing.

 These are very different things.

 The Federal Reserve was cutting rates in 2001 to try to minimize the pain of the.

com bubble and it did nothing.

 What's important to remember is the stock market continued to sell off throughout 2001, 2002, uh, and basically through early 2003 when you finally bottomed out.

 What was the catalyst for bottoming out? The money printer turning on.

 So, there are different things.

 You can cut rates.

 That doesn't necessarily do anything for you immediately.

 There's generally, as Powell always says, a long and variable lag.

 Uh, and and even if rates are low, you don't necessarily know that businesses are going to borrow and people are going to take advantage of it if they're uncertain.

 So what happens is you're in this weird environment where you can actually cut rates down down down down just like we did in 01 and you don't actually sustain the stock market or the economy.

 What matters is actually turning the money printer on and basically getting into the ditch bailing stuff out directly.

 And that is the precedent that has been set by the Federal Reserve since the 80s that when things get bad enough they will come and turn the money printer on and shower everything with cash and make it all okay again.

 Just know that's different from rate cuts.

 Now that that kind of then begs the question, so are rate cuts bullish or bearish? Well, generally we think of rate cuts as bullish because rates go down, people can borrow more money on margin or real estate debt or whatever and invest it.

 But why are they cutting? And that's where we're starting to get these hints that they're starting to freak out about jobs a lot.

 In fact, Jerome Powell went as far as saying that artificial intelligence will replace a lot of jobs.

 There was no question his opinion there.

 He said it will replace a lot of jobs and in the short term we could see significant reductions in employment and that's what he's hearing from CEOs as well which again sounds bullish cuts but it's also bad recessionary right in in that near term before you get to the money printer.

 Now, he does say that longer term AI will probably create jobs and we'll see more productivity from people, which is a good thing.

 But in the meantime, we're just going to pay attention really to any meaningful increase in inflation on the goods channel over the next uh you know, essentially two months.

 So, this is actually really interesting because you should mark these two dates on your calendar.

 You should mark uh July 15th because that's when we're going to get the June CPI report.

 And you should mark August 12th because that's when we're going to get the July CPI report.

 So mark those calendars, those days on your calendar, July 15th, August 12th.

 Powell says, "We expect a meaningful increase in inflation through the goods channel in July and uh June in those reads.

" Now, why does that matter? because it I mean to me he basically gives us exactly what to look for.

 Don't worry about non-housing services.

 Don't worry about housing services.

 Just see how much is showing up in goods outside of food and energy.

 So literally not food and energy, not services, just goods, core goods.

 That's all they're really going to be looking at.

 And if there's no inflation popping up in June or July there and those inflation reads as we get the reports July 15th to 12th, we could be in a really great spot for getting those cuts in September.

 Now, of course, he also reiterates that obviously if the jobs market weakens, then we'll have to cut uh potentially sooner than expected.

 And again, when you combine this with what the other folks at the Fed are saying and what he's saying about artificial intelligence, does it sound great for the jobs market? He probably mentioned five to 10 different times, if we see weakness in the labor market, that would change things rapidly.

 And that's already what the other members of the board are screaming like, hey, labor's weakening, immigration's going to hurt, AI is going to hurt, everything like we're starting to see the signs.

 As you saw in the conference board survey, in the Philly Fed survey, people were already starting to get a little bit more nervous.

 and that sort of like postliberation day, undoing liberation day, like the pause of liberation day, that enthusiasm may be starting to wne.

 Now, that doesn't necessarily mean the stock market's doing poorly at the moment.

 I mean, frankly, you look at the cues, we're literally at the 5401 rejection point.

 I you if you're part of the course member group, the this is the only way you're going to believe it.

 But I said this is your rejection point today.

 exactly 540 uh 01 on the line.

 I didn't draw that line today.

 That line's been there for months since February and we perfectly rejected this.

 Uh and that was on the Alpha Report.

 So, if you're not part of the Alpha Report yet, you might want to be part of that.

 Get it at me.

com.

 You could use coupon code jpal.

 Uh, and then I also said this morning that I would not play the optimism on Tesla because it was rallying and we were up at 359 and I'm like, I would not play the optimism today.

 We don't have a second wind of a catalyst today.

 We were up 8% yesterday.

 This is probably going to get magneted down to 347 before it's even worth playing.

 And sure enough, magneted right down to 347.

 So if you want to be part of that strategy, we do it together as course members roughly at 5:30 in the morning California time, 8:30 Eastern.

 So an hour before market opens, we go through this in a strategy.

 So if you want to be part of this, remember you get lifetime access over at meetc.

com.

 So continuing with what Powell says.

 Powell says we uh that he he does believe that this time is different.

 And I hate hearing that phrase.

 He says this time is different because in 2018 we hadn't been at 2% inflation in a decade whereas now we've been basically above 2% inflation for well basically since co uh and so the issue with this is he worries that goods inflation could be larger and more longlasting than than anybody would really hope.

 Uh again the issue here is that's why Powell is waiting.

 Now, I agree with Donald Trump and saying Jerome Pal's probably going to be too late, but I understand I understand why J.

 Pal is waiting.

 He doesn't want his legacy to be in Arthur Burns 2.

0.

 That would be a Fed share from the 1970s.

 Quick history lesson.

 In the 1970s, every time the Fed got a new piece of data, they increased rates, reduced rates, and they basically had no credibility for anything that they were doing.

 Don't get me wrong, they don't have a lot of credibility today, but they definitely have a lot more today than they did then.

 You didn't even have a Fed put president back then.

 Paul Vulkar put the pants on, raised rates to about 18 to 20%.

 Crushed the back of inflation through a double dip recession 198082 and then we had like a 10-year bull market.

 Obviously, it took a little bit of Fed money printing in the late 80s, you know, after a Black Monday.

 But that said, you know, the the Fed precedent has been one of, hey, we've had 40 years of declining inflation rates uh because of whatever macroeconomic situations that occurred during those 40 years and it's unclear that those are going to repeat themselves today.

 I disagree with Powell.

 I think that the great moderation will repeat itself.

 I believe that by 2032, we will actually be in a negative interest rate regime where banks are charging you to leave money in savings.

 But that's my opinion.

 Powell might also have that opinion.

 Donald Trump has that opinion that rates are, you know, need to come down, right? But Powell doesn't know.

 And so he's waiting for that certainty.

 But he's really starting to hint that cuts cuts are coming.

 Like maybe we don't have to wait as long as he said during the Fed meeting.

 During the Fed meeting, he said we're going to wait the next three months.

 Today he's only talking about waiting the next two months.

 And before the last Fed meeting, you had nobody at the Fed saying, "Oh yeah, we're going to potentially cut as soon as July.

" Now, just 3 days later or 4 days later, actually, we're closer to 6 days later from when the meeting was, but anyway, within a week later, we have four members saying, "Yeah, we might need to cut sooner.

 Inflation's not showing up, and the labor market is sucking.

" Now, both of those are probably just a different form of inflation showing up.

 If you think about it, inflation may not be showing up in CPI, consumer prices, may be showing up in costs for businesses, which then lead businesses to lay off.

 And maybe that's why you've got four people from the Fed going, "Ah, crap.

" Also, this morning you had Steve Minutian, and he said, remember our former Treasury Secretary? He said, "We're going to see 100 basis points lower," so a whole percentage point lower in the Fed rate soon.

 And it's common for the Federal Reserve to say they're going to wait and then suddenly cut.

 So minutian is suggesting that Fed is just putting on the hard face until, you know, that JPL is just putting on the hard face until we get through the next couple months here of data.

 Uh and and then big cuts are coming and that they might cut aggressively because of the jobs market.

 Remember, mark your calendar, July 15th, August 12th.

 Pretty incredible.

 Uh drum powell does say that you know we are in a regime where growth is slowing no doubt uh and this is where he gets drilled like wait like do you want growth to slow that's weird.

 No obviously he doesn't but you know then it sort of depends on on their mandates.

 We've already heard that so we won't replicate all of that.

 Uh something else that was interesting is he says that private credit has not been through a real downturn.

 Okay, this is actually a big phrase.

 He's basically saying like companies like a firm and the sort of like tertiary private credit markets that exist have not been battle tested in a recession yet.

 It's one of the reasons and this is just sort of like entrepreneur to entrepreneur here, okay? Or or like investor to investor, okay? I'm not this isn't designed to be a pitch.

 House hack uh believes we have it's it's sort of in our back pocket.

 We think we have an extremely competitive uh way to provide equity loans to people who have a really low lockin rate, but rates are high, right? So, you can't capitalize that equity in your home.

 And we think there are ways we can establish that based on the value of homes with, you know, potentially minimal uh I'm not going to get into the competitive advantages.

 Uh we'll talk about that differently, different time.

 The problem is you don't want to get into private credit.

 And this is the investor investor department.

 You don't want to get into private credit.

 If you're about to walk into a recession, you want to get into credit when you're coming out of a recession or you're soft landing back into growth.

 That's when you want to be exposed to credit.

 So, I actually think Jerome Powell is right on and it aligns, you know, who knows, maybe I'm just this is like the uh, you know, cognitive bias associating with, you know, that's what I've been thinking, so I'm picking up on it.

 But I think it's very logical.

 I mean like do I want to own a firm in a recession? No, of course not.

 Uh but you know, do I want like it could a firm be a moonshot if you soft land? Hell yeah.

 Right.

 So to me that seems pretty binary because the risks of credit defaults are massive uh in in a recession.

 So uh and I think this is why he also brings up that banks are what he says quote likely risk averse in this environment.

 This is also where they talk about debanking.

 Uh the Federal Reserve actually just removed reputation risk from uh the requirements that banks sort of like make sure they're in compliance.

 But it's actually very common for politicians or people on social media to get debanked.

 Uh a lot of this had been pointed at people who were Trump supporters that ended up getting debanked from like Bank of America or whatever.

 Uh and and they basically just send you a letter and they're like, "Ah, you're too risky of a personality for us to deal with.

 We just dump you.

" And it doesn't necessarily mean the person's done anything wrong.

 It's just the banks basically picking and choosing and it's almost like they you know just want people who are silent in the public space and uh Jerome Powell says the Federal Reserve just recently U-turned on their requirement as in within the last 24 hours that uh you know banks consider these sort of risks in their you know in what kind of customers that they have.

 Kind of interesting.

 Uh so then we got let's see here if we don't end up getting that goods inflation we could end up cutting sooner and capital requirements.

 Oh this is also a little bit complicated.

 They talk about the SLR uh the leverage ratios blah blah blah capital requirements for banks blah blah blah blah.

 Bottom line out of all of this, if they end up loosening capital requirements, it's possible that banks might end up buying more treasuries, which if banks buy more treasuries, you could see treasury yields come down and uh bonds basically rally up.

 So, for example, if you wanted to play that, you would invest into potentially something like TLT, which is about a 25-year Treasury bond fund ETF, which has obviously just performed miserably ever since the Federal Reserve cut 100 basis points.

 It was skyrocketing last year when we were worried about recessionary levels of employment and then the Japanese carry trade hit.

 Then the Fed cuts 100 basis points to try to frontr run some of the damage and Treasury yields skyrocket 1% which just like wrecked TLT.

 Uh that said, you can see that over the last few days, the 10-year Treasury yield has actually come down a smidge here.

 Uh 10-year Treasury yield has come down from about 4.

51 down to about 4 uh 29.

 You do also though have the 210 spread bobbing right around that 50 level.

 That's usually where we're right at the edge of shock level.

 So, it's just something to pay attention to.

 This morning, this was actually as high as 51.

 Uh, and so this can be a recessionary signal.

 Treasury yields coming down can be a recessionary signal.

 The conference board has a recessionary signal.

 But something else that can be a recessionary signal is oil.

 Oil is down 6% today on the ceasefire talk.

 And it's really not so much that like this 6% decline is what's a recessionary signal.

 It's actually more so just this trend right here, right? You can see this trend down on uh the western blend of oil since 2022.

 This collapsing over here potentially is just a sign of a slowing economy.

 Whereas the economy was still chock full of money, cash, and liquidity in 2022 and excess savings.

 that's really being drawn out of the economy or has been drawn out of the economy almost entirely which is why wealthier households are mostly supporting almost all the spending that's happening in the economy right now.

 Uh and so it is an interesting environment to see that while oil markets are now essentially collapsing into back to a recessionary kind of call.

 Treasuries are starting to you know indicate some some yield reversal here.

 Powell and a bunch of Fed people are starting to get a little concerned about the labor market.

 it.

 You know, the Q's are at the all-time high line, which is a really remarkable level to be at, but it also gives us a little bit of a, you know, maybe a warning and that, and I'm not trying to be like a bear here or whatever, but I am I I would say that if you're literally knocking on the doors here, I mean, you're at all-time highs, you know, Robin Hood's absolutely killing it because of the amount of people making money just investing in stocks right now, right? It does sort of beg the question like, I mean, look at this.

 This was the all-time high level we hit was 85 after IPO.

 I was actually an investor preipo through just about IPO level right here.

 Uh and I sold uh I missed all this crap down here.

 But um what's interesting is uh you know when you're at these really high levels you do do sort of start asking yourself at what point does it make sense to set those trailing stops again just in case the Federal Reserve does have to start panic cutting rates and then it makes you wonder could it be like 2001 where the Fed is panic cutting rates and the stock market is plummeting in the face of rates being cut because again there's a difference between rate cuts and the money printer.

 You want the money printer as an investor.

 rate cuts are sound cool, but they're usually being done because of underlying issues in the economy.

 Uh, so I think that's that's just an important duality.

 Again, that's not saying sell everything now.

 It's just saying, look, man, you know, if if you set a a 6% trailing stop on the cues, uh, you know, if the market goes up another 6%, you're golden.

 Who cares? It cost you nothing, right? But if the market goes down to 506, you know, you just auto trigger maybe enough to sell to cover margin or some credit card debt or whatever and you just protect yourself a little bit.

 It's something to consider.

 Maybe a little early right now since we're still riding this like high of like stable coin legislation.

 You know, I actually tweeted which I thought was uh pretty poignant.

 I know I'm trying to like compliment myself here.

 It's not because of an ego.

 It's it's simply to say I actually think it's a good idea, but uh I tweeted that X uh X payments should have its own stable coin and Tesla could then use that to process robo taxi payments.

 Cut out the middleman, right? Uh somebody asked me, "What would you call that stable coin?" Uh and I responded, "Taco.

" Anyway, that's what the Federal Reserve just said.

 And uh if you want more on that uh on on sort of strategies on trades every morning, the alpha report, uh lectures on building your wealth with real estate, stocks, long-term investing, entrepreneurship, productivity, you name it.

 Uh YouTube sales, whatever.

 You get all of it in one package over at mekevin.

com and you could use coupon code jpal.

 Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this.

 We'll we'll try a little advertising and see how it goes.

 Congratulations, man.

 You have done so much.

 People love you.

 People look up to you.

 Kevin Praath there, financial analyst and YouTuber.

 Meet Kevin.

 Always great to get your take.