미국 이란 공격 충격 분석｜2025 균형의 힘 스페셜 에디션

TONIGHT, A SPECIAL EDITION OFBALANCE OF POWER.

 THE U.

S.

 MILITARY STRIKE ON IRAN ANDTHE THREAT OF A WIDENING WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

 >> THEPRESIDENT AUTHORIZED A PRECISION MISSION TO NEUTRALIZETHE THREATS TO OUR NATIONAL INTEREST POSED BY THE IRANIANNUCLEAR MISSION.

 THIS MISSION HAS NOT BEEN ABOUTREGIME CHANGE.

 >> PRESIDENT TRUMP ACTED TODENY THE WORLD'S MOST DANGEROUS REGIME FROM THE WORLD'S MOSTDANGEROUS WEAPONS.

 >> TONIGHT I CAN REPORT TO THEWORLD THAT THESE STRIKES WERE A SPECTACULAR MILITARY SUCCESS.

 >> THE WORLD AWAITING ARESPONSE AFTER U.

S.

 AIRCRAFT PENETRATED IRANIANAIRSPACE USING BUSTER BUCKING BOMBS.

 -- BUSTER BUNKING BOMBS.

 >> THE DETAILS BEHIND OF THEMIDNIGHT HAMMER AND THE AFTERMATH AND HOW THE MILITARYIS PREPARING FOR RETALIATION.

 >> AND OIL FUTURES OPENING WITHSTOCK FUTURES SINKING.

 WE WILL DIVE INTO THE ACTION.

 >> AND HOW WASHINGTON ISREACTING TO THE SURPRISE ATTACK.

 CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS INFORMEDMOMENTS AFTER THE MISSION WAS CONDUCTED.

 >> ALL OF THAT AND MORE ON THISSPECIAL EDITION OF "BALANCE OF POWER: THE ATTACK ON AROUND.

" >> THE BULLY OF THE MIDDLE EASTMUST NOW MAKE PEACE.

 IF THEY DO NOT, FUTURE ATTACKSWILL BE GREATER AND EASIER.

 >> NEW DETAILS ON THE STRIKE ONMULTIPLE IRANIAN NUCLEAR FACILITIES.

 >> A SHORT TIME AGO THE U.

S.

MILITARY CARRIED OUT MASSIVE PRECISION STRIKES ON THE THREEKEY NUCLEAR FACILITIES IN THE IRANIAN REGIME.

 INCLUDING NATANZ AND ESFAHAN.

EVERYONE HAS HEARD THOSE NAMES FOR YEARS AS THEY BUILT THATHORRIBLY DESTRUCTIVE ENTERPRISE.

 JOE:THE WORLD WAITS FOR POTENTIAL RETALIATION.

THE STATE DEPARTMENT IS NOW URGING INCREASED CAUTION TO U.

S.

CITIZENS ABROAD.

 TYLER? TYLER: A U.

S.

OFFICIAL TELLS US PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS SPENT TODAY WORKINGHERE AT THE WHITE HOUSE.

 IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT HEHAD A PHONE CALL WITH THE U.

K.

 PRIME MINISTER A SHORT TIME AGOAS THE U.

S.

 AND ITS ALLIES ARE CALLING FORTALKS TO RESUME OVER IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM WITH PRESIDENTTRUMP THREATENING FURTHER ACTION IF IRAN DOES NOT COME TOTHE NEGOTIATING TABLE.

 IT IS SOMETHING THAT IRANIANOFFICIALS REITERATED TODAY THAT IT CANNOT HAPPEN UNLESS THESTRIKES AGAINST THEM ENDS FIRST.

 U.

S.

 OFFICIALS HAVEMAINTAINED THAT THE MISSION OF THE OPERATION HAS BEEN TODESTROY IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM.

 WE GOT A POST FROM PRESIDENTTRUMP ON TRUTH SOCIAL IN THE LAST HOUR WHERE HE USED THEWORDS "REGIME CHANGE.

" IF THE CURRENT REGIME IS UNABLETO MAKE OUR RAN GREAT AGAIN, WHY WOULDN'T THERE BE A REGIMECHANGE? WHAT CIRCUMSTANCES WITH THE U.

S.

SUPPORTK THIS BUT LOOKING AHEAD WEALEY ARE WAITING ON IS THATU.

S.

 OFFICIALS AND THE U.

S.

 ENERGY AND ATOMIC AGENCY SAY ITWILL TAKE A LONG TIME TO GET THE FOLDER ASSESSMENT ABOUT HOWMUCH ACTION -- DAMAGED IT HAPPENS.

 WE DID HEAR FROM JD VANCEEARLIER TODAY IN A SERIES OF INTERVIEWS WHERE HE SAID THEU.

S.

 MAINTAINS IT DID SIGNIFICANTDAMAGE WHEN IT COMES TO DELAYING THE IRANIAN AMBITIONSFOR A NUCLEAR WEAPON BUT HE DID SIGNALED THAT IT HOLDS ON TO ASTOCKPILE OF ENRICHED URANIUM.

 KAILEY:AS WE CONSIDER WHAT IRAN MAY HAVE AT ITS DISPOSAL, WHAT DOESTHE WHITE HOUSE DO TO HEDGE AGAINST THE RISK? REPORTER: THE WHITE HOUSE HAS IT HAS BEENPROACTIVE WHEN IT COMES TO PROTECTING OUR TROOPS.

GIVEN THE FACT THAT THERE ARE MORE THAN 40,000 TROOPS INTHEATER, IT DOES HEIGHTEN THE RISK WHEN IT COMES TO HOW THEU.

S.

 IS VIEWING THIS PICTURE HOLISTICALLY.

OUR ANALYST AT BLOOMBERG DO INDICATE THAT IRAN MAY TEMPERITS RESPONSE GIVEN A FEW DIFFERENT FACTORS INCLUDING AWEAK ECONOMY, DOMESTIC DISCONTENT WITH THE REGIME ANDTHE FACT THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN STRATEGIC ALLIES OF IRAN LENTANYTHING MORE THAN RHETORICAL SUPPORT AT THE MOMENT THOUGH WEARE WATCHING IT CLOSELY.

 IRAN'S PARLIAMENT TODAY DIDVOTE TO CLOSE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

THAT WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AND WOULDBE CONTRIBUTING TO THE MOVES WE ARE SEEING WHEN IT COMES TO OIL.

JOE: BLOOMBERG'S TYLER KENDALL LIVEFROM THE WHITE HOUSE AND WE WILL CHECK BACK LATER IN THEHOUR.

 TODAY ON NBC'S MEET THE PRESSTHE VICE PRESIDENT SHARED WHETHER HE BELIEVES PRESIDENTTRUMP WANTS REGIME CHANGE IN IRAN.

 >> IT WAS NOT AN ATTACK ON THEIRANIAN PEOPLE.

 IT WAS NOT A REGIME CHANGE MOVE.

THIS WAS DESIGNED TO DO -- TO DEGRADE AND/OR DESTROY THENUCLEAR FACILITIES.

 THERE ARE NO PLANNED MILITARYOPERATIONS AGAINST IRAN UNLESS THEY MUST AROUND AND ATTACKAMERICAN INTERESTS AND THEN THEY WILL HAVE A PROBLEM.

 JOE:CLEARLY THAT WAS SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO WHO WASDOUBLING NOW IS THE PRESIDENT'S NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR.

THIS MORNING PETE HEGSETH DESCRIBED THE EXTENT OF THESTRIKES AGAINST IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM.

 LISTEN.

 ALL RIGHT, WHY DON'T WE MOVEAHEAD -- >> WE DEVASTATED THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM BUT ITIS WORTH NOTING THE OPERATION DID NOT TARGET IRANIAN TROOPSOR THE IRANIAN PEOPLE.

 OR THE ENTIRETY OF HIS TIME INOFFICE PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS CONSISTENTLY STATED FOR OVER 10YEARS THAT IRAN MUST NOT GET A NUCLEAR WEAPON, FULL STOP.

 THANK YOU TO PRESIDENT TRUMP'SBOLD AND VISIONARY LEADERSHIP AND COMMITMENT TO PEACE, IRAN'SNUCLEAR AMBITIONS HAVE BEEN OBLITERATED.

 JOE: LET'S ADD THE VOICE OF JOEBOLTON, THE FORMER U.

S.

 AMBASSADOR TO THE U.

N.

AND FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR IN THE FIRST TRUMPADMINISTRATION.

 THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US ONBLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO.

 I DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU MAKE OFTHIS RHETORICAL DANCE WE ARE HEARING ABOUT THE DAMAGE WITHPRESIDENT TRUMP SUGGESTING ONE FACILITY WAS OBLITERATED.

WE HAVE HEARD MORE TEMPERED COMMENTS FROM ANALYSTSINCLUDING THE IAEA.

 DID WE GO FAR ENOUGH?MR.

 BOLTON: I DON'T THINK THE JOB ISFINISHED.

 IT IS DIFFICULT TO MAKE AVALUATIONS OF HOW AFFECTIVE WE HAVE BEEN AT THE ONE FACILITYWHICH BY DEFINITION WAS UNDER A MOUNTAIN.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE INSIDE.

 MY GUESS IS THAT WHAT THECHAIRMAN OF THE JOINT SHEAVES SAID IS ACCURATE, THERE WASSEVERE DAMAGE.

 WE WILL BE CHECKING FURTHER.

THERE ARE A LOT OF OTHER PIECES THOUGH THAT NEED TO BE PUT INPLAY.

 WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FROM OVERHEADPHOTOGRAPHS AND DURING THE 60 PLUS DAYS OF NEGOTIATION THATPRESIDENT TRUMP OFFERED THE IRANIANS, WE DID A FAIR AMOUNT OF WORK TRYING TO MOVESENSITIVE MACHINERY AND STOCKPILES OUT OF KEY TARGETAREAS.

 WE MAY OR MAY NOT KNOW WHERETHAT IS BUT I DON'T THINK THIS IS OVER YET.

JUST ON THE MISSION OF DESTROYING THESE THREE SITES.

KAILEY: AND ON THAT MISSION, ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS HAVEMAINTAINED THAT THE OBJECTIVE WAS SOLELY TO FOCUS ON IRAN'SNUCLEAR CAPABILITIES AND NOT ON REGIME CHANGE.

BUT COULD THAT STILL BE THE END RESULT? AND HOW? MR.

 BOLTON: EXACTLY.

THE PRESIDENT HAS BEEN TWEETING ABOUT REGIME CHANGE.

I THINK REGIME CHANGE HAS TO BE THE OBJECTIVE.

THE AYATOLLAHS WILL NEVER GIVE UP THEIR PURSUIT OF NUCLEARWEAPONS.

 THEY HAVE TO BE FORCED OUT OFPOWER, OUR ONLY SHOT AT LASTING PEACE AND SECURITY IN THEMIDDLE EAST.

 A STRIKE LIKE THIS AND POTENTIALLY OTHERS ANDCERTAINLY ISRAEL'S ONGOING ATTACKS CAN DISRUPT THE REGIMEAND DESTABILIZE IT.

 LOOK AT THE CHOICE THE TOPMILITARY OFFICIALS AND KEY AYATOLLAHS HAVE TO FACE AFTERTHE U.

S.

 ATTACK.

 THEY HAVE BEEN BEATEN BADLY BYTHE ISRAELIS EVER SINCE HAMAS' ATTACKED OUT OF GAZA ON OCTOBER7, 2023.

 NOW THEY HAVE TO MAKE A CHOICE-- DO THEY WANT TO TAKE ON A SECOND MILITARY ADVERSARY INTHE FORM OF THE U.

S.

? THEY MAY WELL DO IT.

IT IS A REGIME RUN BY MEDIEVAL RELIGIOUS FANATICS AND THEY MAYRETALIATE BUT THEY WOULD BE MAKING A BIG MISTAKE FROM THEPOINT OF VIEW OF REGIME SURVIVAL.

 JOE:WHEN WE CONSIDER THE DAY AFTER WHETHER IT IS AT THE ATTACK ONAN AIR BASE AS WE SAW AFTER THE KILLING OF AN INDIVIDUAL ORAGAINST BAHRAIN, THE HOME OF THE FIFTH FLEET OR SOMETHING WEARE NOT THINKING OF, WHAT WOULD OR WHAT SHOULD BE THE U.

S.

RESPONSE? MR.

 BOLTON: THERE ARE THREE CATEGORIES OFPOSSIBLE TARGETS.

 ONE IS MORE ATTACKS ON ISRAEL.

SECOND WOULD BE A TAX AGAINST THE GULF ARAB -- ATTACKSAGAINST THE GULF ARAB STATES AND AGAINST DEPLOYED U.

S.

MILITARY ASSETS, PRIVATE CITIZENS IN THE REGION ANDTERRORIST ATTACKS AGAINST AMERICANS AND OTHERS AROUND THEWORLD.

 OUR FIRST CONCERN IS THE AMERICANS.

WE WILL DO EVERYTHING WE CAN TO DEFEND ISRAEL.

I THINK WE SHOULD MAKE IT CLEAR TO THE GULF ARAB STATES ANDJORDAN AND EGYPT THAT WE WILL BE DEFENDING THEM ALSO.

WE HAVE A COMMON INTEREST AGAINST THIS IRANIAN THREAT.

IT IS MUCH HARDER FOR IRAN TO DO WHAT THEY MIGHT LIKE TO DOGIVEN THE POUNDING THEY ARE TAKING FROM ISRAEL AND GIVENTHEIR PROXIES HAVE BEEN BADLY BEATEN.

 THEIR KEY ALLY, ASSAD IN SYRIA,HAS FALLEN.

 KAILEY: AS WE CONSIDER WHATCAPABILITIES IRAN MAY HAVE TWO RETALIATE MILITARILY, WHAT IFIT IS IN THE FORM OF IRAN NO LONGER COOPERATING IN THENONPROLIFERATION TREATY AND NO LONGER ALLOWING INSPECTORS TOMONITOR? THOUGH WE MAY HAVE DIMINISHEDTHEIR CAPABILITY AND THE SHORT TERM, DOES THAT NOT POTENTIALLYRISK IF THEY WERE TO EXIT THAT AGREEMENT, MUCH GREATER DANGERIN THE LONG RUN? MR.

 BOLTON: IT WOULD NOT MAKE ANYDIFFERENCE AT ALL.

 THEY HAVE BEEN VIOLATING THETREATY FOR THE LAST 20 FIVE YEARS BECAUSE OUR COMMITMENTWAS NOT TO SEEK NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN ANY FORM AND THAT IS WHATTHEY HAVE BEEN DOING.

 A WITHDRAWAL FROM THE TREATY ISMEANINGLESS.

 THE IAEA HAS BEEN EXCLUDED FROMKEY SITES FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

 IAEA IS A GOOD AGENCY.

I HAVE A LOT OF RESPECT FOR IT BUT IT IS NOT AN INTELLIGENCEAGENCY.

 THE MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATIONTHAT THE IAEA DEALS WITH, WE HAVE GIVEN THEM.

 JOE: IRAN'S PARLIAMENT HAS VOTED TOCLOSE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

 YOU MAY NOT TAKE THAT SERIOUSLYBUT WHAT WOULD BE OUR CAPABILITY IF WE BEGAN TO SEEIRAN LAY MINES.

 MR.

 BOLTON: THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WAYS THEYCOULD TRY TO DO IT AND THAT IS WHY WE HAVE PUT SUBSTANTIALLYGREATER NAVAL ASSETS IN THE REGION AND MORE ARE ON THE WAY.

THIS IS SOMETHING, I THINK, THAT MAY BE MORE BLUSTER THANANYTHING ELSE AND CAN RAISE THE LEVEL OF DANGER BUT WE AREFULLY AWARE THAT THIS HAS BEEN A POSSIBILITY.

IF THEY TRY IT, IT WILL NOT BE SIMPLY CLEARING MINES AWAY FROMTHE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, I EXPECT WE WOULD PUT MUCH OF THEIRANIAN NAVY ON THE BOTTOM OF THE RED SEA AND WOULD BESTRIKING OTHER TARGETS.

 THIS IS A NO WIN PROPOSITIONFOR THEM IF THEY UP THE STAKES THAT WAY.

 KAILEY: JOHN BOLTON, A FORMER ONE ABOUT-- U.

S.

 AMBASSADOR TO THE U.

N.

 AS WE CONSIDER THE STRAIT OFHORMUZ, OIL MARKETS DO NOT SEEM OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT THEPROSPECT OF THAT BEING CHOKED OFF.

 BRENT AND WTI FUTURES UP OVERJUST 3%.

 WE ALSO HAVE OUR EYE ON REACTION FROM CAPITOL HILL ASTHERE HAVE BEEN QUESTIONS OVER WHETHER CONGRESSIONAL APPROVALSHOULD HAVE BEEN REQUIRED FOR THE STRIKES ON IRAN .

HERE IS WHAT SEVERAL DEMOCRATS SAID EARLIER TODAY.

 >> WHAT I THINK SHOULD HAVEHAPPENED UPFRONT IS HIM COMING TO CONGRESS AND ASKING FORAUTHORIZATION TO DO THIS.

 THAT IS THE CONSTITUTIONALAPPROACH.

 >> CONGRESS NEEDS TO AUTHORIZETHE WAR AGAINST IRAN.

 WE HAVE NOT.

CONGRESS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

 WE WERE NOT.

CONGRESS NEEDS TO BE NOTIFIED IN ADVANCE.

 >> AS A MEMBER OF CONGRESS I'MJUST TURNED THIS WAS UNDERTAKEN WITHOUT CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL.

THERE IS NOT MUCH AMBIGUITY IN THE CONSTITUTION.

 KAILEY:JOINING US NOW WITH HIS REACTION IS DARRELL ISSA FROMCALIFORNIA, THE VICE CHAIR OF THE HOUSE FOREIGN AFFAIRSCOMMITTEE HERE WITH US IN OUR WASHINGTON STUDIO.

THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.

 >> AND THANKS FOR THE LEAD INONE AFTER ANOTHER OF MY COLLEAGUES ON THE OTHER SIDE OFTHE IAGO FORGETTING ABOUT EVERY ONE FROM TRUMAN THROUGH BIDEN,EVERY ONE OF THEM DID A KINETIC FIRING AND NONE OF THEM WENT TOWAR OR CAME TO CONGRESS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL APPROVAL.

AND THAT IS THE ONLY THING THE CONSTITUTION SAYS -- GOING TOWORK.

 SINCE TEDDY ROOSEVELT FAMOUSLYSAID -- I WILL SEND THE GREAT WHITE FLEET WHEREVER I WANT,PRESIDENTS HAVE BEEN OPEN ABOUT BEING THE COMMANDER-IN-CHIEFAND TAKING ACTION, NOT WAITING FOR APPROVAL OF CONGRESS ANDNOT EVEN CONSULTING CONGRESS BUT INFORMING CONGRESS.

AND WE WERE ALL VERY INFORMED 60 DAYS AGO AND A FEW DAYS AGOTHAT THIS WAS LIKELY TO HAPPEN.

 KAILEY:THE INTEGRITY OF THE GANG OF EIGHT WAS NOT READ IN.

 >> AGAIN, THE TRADITIONS OFWHETHER OR NOT YOU DO SOMETHING, I HAVE TO BE HONEST-- I HAVE ALWAYS HAD A CONCERN THAT IN SOMETHING WHERE SO MANYOF OUR BRAVE MEN AND WOMEN ARE GOING INTO HARM'S WAY.

100 25 AIRCRAFT AND COUNTLESS SHIPS COME IN ANY KIND OF ABOTCH AND WE WOULD END UP WITH WHAT JIMMY CARTER ENDED UP WITHIN THE DOES -- WITH IN THE DESERT, A DISASTER.

THIS WAS PULLED OFF BECAUSE OF DECEPTION.

NOT A DECEPTION ABOUT IT BEING LIKELY TO HAPPEN BUT ABOUTWHERE AND WHEN IT WAS TO HAPPEN.

 FROM CLINTON TO BIDEN FROM ADEMOCRAT AFTER DEMOCRAT LAUNCHED AGAINST LIBYA, AGAINSTSYRIA, THE LIST IS -- JOE: WHEN JIM HIMES SAID HE FOUND OUTABOUT IT ON SOCIAL MEDIA.

 HE FOUND OUT ABOUT IT WHENPRESIDENT TRUMP POSTED ABOUT IT.

 IS THIS THE NEW NORMAL FOR THESAKE OF SECRECY? >> IT IS A LITTLE BIT OF THENEW NORMAL.

 WHEN WE GOT OSAMA BIN LADEN, WEFOUND OUT ABOUT IT WHEN THE PRESIDENT WAS UP THERE AND THEYWERE TAKING HIM OUT.

 THERE ARE THINGS THAT ARE DONEWITH A RECOGNITION THAT THEY ARE LIKELY TO HAPPEN BUT NOTTHE EXACT TIME, SPACE -- TIME, PLACE AND MANNER.

THIS SUCCESSFUL MISSION THE PRESIDENT DID TO MAKE IT CLEARWE WON'T TOLERATE A NUCLEAR IRAN .

 AND THIS IS NOT ABOUT THE TWOWEEKS THAT NETANYAHU TALKS ABOUT ALL THE TIME.

WHEN THEY PASSED 20% AND WENT TO 60% ENRICHMENT, THEYENRICHED URANIUM TO A LEVEL THAT IS USEFUL FOR NOTHING BUTNUCLEAR WEAPONS.

 AT THAT POINT THEY WERE SO FAROUT OF COMPLAINTS -- COMPLIANCE AND THEY WERE PREPARED TOWEAPONIZE.

 THE PRESIDENT IS HOLDING OUTAND ALL OF BRANCH EVERY DAY INCLUDING TODAY BUT HE HAS ALSOMADE IT CLEAR HE WILL NOT TOLERATE THE CONTINUED BEHAVIORTHAT HAS CAUSED SO MANY AMERICAN LIVES ALL THE WAY BACKTO THE EARLY 1980'S WHEN THE IRANIAN REGIME WAS YOUNG.

KAILEY: WE DID HEAR FROM A NUMBER OFDEMOCRATS BUT ONE OF YOUR REPUBLICAN COLLEAGUES, THOMASMASSIE WHO SAID THIS WAS UNCONSTITUTIONAL.

IF THE OLIVE BRANCH DOESN'T WORK AND THE U.

S.

HAS TO TAKE CONTINUED MILITARY ACTION, IS THAT WORTH A VOTE? >> I SERVED WITH RON PAUL, THEORIGINAL DOCTOR KNOW.

 I SERVED ON THE JUDICIARY ANDTHE FULL CONGRESS WITH THOMAS MASSIE.

A WONDERFUL LIBERTARIAN WITH A WONDERFUL INTERPRETATION.

SO YOU UNDERSTAND, THE SAME THOMAS MASSIE WHO ABSOLUTELY SAYS WE HAVE TO DO THIS WOULD-- CANNOT BE COPYRIGHTED.

 YOU CAN HAVE A PUREST OPINIONBUT HISTORY SAYS ALL THE WAY BACK THROUGH TRUMAN, BEFORETHERE WAS A WAR POWERS, AND SINCE, PRESIDENT AFTERPRESIDENT TO KEEP AMERICA SAFE HAS ACTED WITHOUT SPECIFICNOTICE TO CONGRESS UNTIL AFTER THE FACT.

 JOE:IF WE HAD A PROTRACTED CONFLICT WITH IRAN, I PRESUME YOU WOULDSIGN OFF ON A WAR POWERS.

 >> ABSOLUTELY.

 IRAQ WAS IN A WAR WITH IRAN FOREIGHT YEARS.

 THERE ARE 91 MILLION PEOPLE INIRAN, MOST OF THEM INNOCENT VICTIMS.

 WHEN IT IS ALL SAIDAND DONE, WE NEED TO DO FOR THE IRANIANS WHAT WE CAN DO WHICHIS TO DIMINISH THE ABILITY OF THAT NATION TO EXPORTTERRORISM, ENCOURAGE THEM TO SPEND THEIR VAST OIL MONEY ONTHEIR PEOPLE, AND EMPOWER THEM TO MAKE REGIME CHANGE IF THEYCHOOSE TO AND NOT US.

 IF THERE IS GOING TO BE REGIMECHANGE, PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS MADE IT CLEAR, IT WILL NOT BEAT THE HANDS OF THE UNITED STATES BUT AT THE HANDS OFIRANIANS WHO HAVE HAD ENOUGH OF THEIR NOW WEAKENED REGIME THATHAS BEEN IN POWER FOR 47 EUROS.

 THAT IS THE REALITY.

IT WILL NOT BE IRANIANS LIVING OUTSIDE OF IRAN OR AMERICANSBUT THE IRANIAN PEOPLE THAT HAVE RISEN UP AGAIN AND AGAINONLY TO BE STABBED IN THE STREETS, IN PRESENT IN VASTAMOUNTS.

 THIS IS A REGIME THAT HASCAPTURED AND KILLED THEIR OWN PEOPLE FOR 47 YEARS.

THIS IS A RIDGING THAT HAS LED TO DEATHS OF AMERICANS ANDOTHERS AROUND THE GLOBE.

 I AM OF LEBANESE ANCESTRY AND ICAN TELL YOU THAT I'VE BEEN GOING TO THAT REGION FOR 30PLUS YEARS AND THEY HAVE CREATED A SITUATION IN WHICHONE OF THE MOST BEAUTIFUL PLACES ON THE PLANET, A PLACEWHERE CHRISTIANS AND MUSLIMS AND JEWS HAVE LIVED TOGETHERSINCE THE BEGINNING OF TIME -- BUT THEY DO NOT BECAUSE THEYARE CAPTURED BY HEZBOLLAH AND FUNDED BY IRAN .

WHEN I AM PASSIONATE ABOUT THE NEED TO SUPPORT ISRAEL, I'MSUPPORTING ISRAEL BECAUSE THEY ARE OUR ALLY BUT I'M ALSOSUPPORTING THE FACT THAT IRAN SINCE THE TIME I WAS A FIRSTLIEUTENANT IN 1979, THEY HAVE BEEN THE NEMESIS OF PRESIDENTAFTER PRESIDENT AND LEAD TO A COST TO THE WORLD, A COST OFFREEDOM AND PROGRESS AND NOT JUST IN IRAN.

PASSIONATE ABOUT IT, YES? HAPPY -- YOU ARE NEVER HAPPYTHAT THIS IS NECESSARY.

 THE PRESIDENT DID EVERYTHING HECOULD TO AVOID IT.

 HE WENT INTO THISADMINISTRATION TRYING TO AVOID IT.

THE DIFFERENCE NOW IS THAT IRAN HAS TO MAKE A DECISION -- THEYARE NO LONGER IN THE NUCLEAR BUSINESS.

WILL THEY TRY TO GO BACK TO THE ROCKET AND MISSILE BUSINESS? WHEN THEY CLOSED THE STRAITS IN1987, REAGAN RESPONDED BY SINKING THEIR FLEET.

THIS PRESIDENT WILL NOT TOLERATE THE INTERNATIONALORDER BEING DISRUPTED BY THESE PEOPLE.

 KAILEY:AND HOW MUCH WILL CHINA AND RUSSIA AND WHETHER THEY LEND AHELPING HAND TO IRAN MOVE THINGS FORWARD? >> THEY HAVE BEEN OPPORTUNISTS.

I DON'T THINK THEY WANT TO GO AGAINST THE U.

S.

, IT IS NOT INTHEIR INTEREST.

 CHINA NEEDS THE REST OF THE GULF OF -- CHINANEEDS THE REST OF THE GULF COUNTRIES NOT TO BE THEIRENEMIES.

 WHEN IT IS CONVENIENT, HOW THEYBOUGHT OIL AT A DISCOUNT? ABSOLUTELY.

WOULD THEY LIKE TO CONTINUE? YES.

 AND IF THERE IS A REGIMECHANGE, THEY WILL STILL BE SELLING TO THE CHINESE.

THEY ARE GOOD CUSTOMERS.

 THE WEAPONS THAT HAVE COME OUTOF IRAN MUCH WITH CHINESE HELP THAT ARE IN RUSSIA KILLINGUKRAINIANS, THAT WILL STOP BECAUSE THIS DIMINISHMENT.

 JOE:GREAT TO HAVE YOU WITH US.

 CONGRESSMAN DARA I SAW --DARRELL ISSA.

 POP U.

S.

 OFFICIALS HAVE MAINTAINED THESTRIKES WERE NOT MEANT TO FORCE A REGIME CHANGE AS WE HAVE BEENDISCUSSING INCLUDING THE DEFENSE SECRETARY, PETE HEGSETHWHO SAID THIS EARLIER TODAY.

 >> THIS MISSION HAS NOT BEENABOUT REGIME CHANGE.

 THE PRESIDENT AUTHORIZED APOSITION OPERATION TO NEUTRALIZE THE THREATS TO OURNATIONAL INTERESTS POSED BY THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM AND THECOLLECTIVE SELF-DEFENSE OF OUR TROOPS AND OUR ALLY, ISRAEL.

JOE: PRESIDENT TRUMP SEEMING TOCONTRADICT THAT MESSAGE AND A SOCIAL MEDIA POST WRITING -- ITIS NOT POLITICALLY CORRECT TO USE THE TERM, RIDGING CHANGE.

"BUT AT THE CURRENT IRANIAN REGIME IS UNABLE TO MAKE A RUNGREAT AGAIN, WHY WOULDN'T THERE BE A REGIME CHANGE THREEQUESTION MARKS.

 FOR MORE ON THE POLITICALOUTLOOK, WE TURN TO THE SENIOR ADVISOR FROM THE COWEN GROUP.

 GREAT TO HAVE YOU BACK WITH US NAÏVE? >> -- GREAT TO HAVE YOU BACKWITH US.

 DO YOU THINK THIS IS A NAÏVE? >> TREMENDOUSLY NAÏVE.

WE HAVE SEEN NOTHING TO SUGGEST THAT THE IRANIAN PUBLIC ART INPOSITION TO RISE UP.

 THIS IS A BRUTAL REGIME.

IT SUFFERS FROM CREDIBILITY AMONG ITS PEOPLE.

THAT BEING SAID, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VIABLEALTERNATIVES AVAILABLE TO FOMENT THE TYPE OF UPRISINGTHAT WOULD BE NEEDED.

 I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT TOREMEMBER THAT THIS IS A SOPHISTICATED FORM OFGOVERNMENT.

 THIS IS NOT GAZA OR SYRIA.

 THIS IS LAYERS UPON LAYERS OFINSTITUTIONS.

 IT IS NOT EVEN CLEAR WHATREGIME CHANGE WOULD MEAN.

 DOES THAT MEAN OPPOSING THESUPREME LEADER? KAILEY: THAT IS AN EXCELLENT POINT.

I WONDER THOUGH IF YOU THINK REGIME CHANGE IS NAÏVE BUT ISIT ALSO NAÏVE TO THINK IRAN MIGHT RETURN TO THE NEGOTIATINGTABLE? WHAT INCENTIVE DO THEY HAVE TODO SO AT THIS POINT? >> I HOPE THEY WILL FIND THEIRWAY BACK TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE.

I'M NOT SURE HOW THAT HAPPENS IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM.

IF YOU LOOK HISTORICALLY AT IF IRAN HAS RESPONDED TO STRIKES,NOT BY THE U.

S.

 IN RECENT MEMORY, BUT AGAINSTTHEIR INTERESTS AND HISTORY WILL TELL US THAT THEY AREGOING TO RESPOND.

 IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING.

WHATEVER WARNINGS WE'VE HEARD OUT OF THE ADMINISTRATION TOTHE CONTRARY IS NOT NECESSARILY REALISTIC.

I THINK WHAT WILL BE TELLING IN THEIR RESPONSE IS WHETHER ITLOOKS LIKE THEY ARE ATTEMPTING TO DE-ESCALATE THE SITUATION ORWHETHER THEY CONTINUE TO ESCALATE.

MY PREDICTION WOULD BE THAT THEY WILL FEEL LIKE THEY HAVETO STRIKE BACK IN A SERIOUS WAY.

 THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAM, THEREMISSILE PROGRAM, THOSE ARE EXISTENTIAL FOR THIS REGIME.

THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT HIT AGAINST THEIR INTERESTS AND ITHINK YOU ARE LIKELY TO SEE A CONSIDERABLE RESPONSE.

SO WHAT COMES NEXT? DOES THE U.

S.

ADMINISTRATION SEE THEMSELVES TO DE-ESCALATE AND PROVIDE THEINCENTIVES YOU REFERRED TO TO GET THEM BACK TO THENEGOTIATING TABLE? WHERE DOES THE DE-ESCALATINGCYCLE CONTINUE WHERE IT IS DIFFICULT FOR EITHER SIDE TOBACK DOWN.

 JOE: IS THIS A TRADITIONAL MILITARYRESPONSE IN YOUR VIEW ATTACKING OUR AIRBASES FOR INSTANCE INBAGHDAD OR BAHRAIN, THE FIFTH FLEET IS BASED IN BAHRAIN.

WE HAVE BASES IN SYRIA AND KUWAIT TO WORRY ABOUT.

OR IS IT A CYBERATTACK OR GOD FORBID A TERRORIST ATTACK ONAMERICAN SOIL.

 >> I THINK IT COULD PLAUSIBLYBE ALL OF THE ABOVE.

 WE KNOW THEY ARE ACTIVE IN THEU.

S.

 AND HAVE CYBER CAPABILITIES.

WE ALSO KNOW THAT MORE TRADITIONAL ATTACKS AGAINST U.

S.

INTERESTS WHICH THEY HAVE ALREADY THREATENED, ARE ALL INTHEIR ARSENAL.

 IT COULD COME IN ANY OF THOSEMANNERS.

 THE OTHER THING WHICH ISIMPORTANT TO REMEMBER IS THAT IRAN IN THE PAST HAS EXERCISEDSTRATEGIC PATIENTS IN RETALIATION.

AND SO WHILE WE ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING TO SEE SOMESORT OF RESPONSE IN THE DAYS AHEAD, I'M NOT SURE WE WILL SEETHE TOTAL RESPONSE.

 AND SO, YOU COULD LOOK --CERTAINLY MONTHS OUT.

 AND PREDICT THERE WILL CONTINUETO BE IMPLICATIONS EVEN IF THINGS STOP HERE AS FAR AS U.

S.

STRIKES GO.

 KAILEY: THE SENIOR ADVISOR AT THE COWENGROUP AND FORMER ACT IN ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR NEAREAST AFFAIRS UNDER PRESIDENT BIDEN.

OIL FUTURES UP 3% AS THE MARKET WEIGHS THE RISKS OF IRANDISRUPTING ENERGY FLOWS.

 WE WILL DISCUSS THIS WITH BOBMCNALLY NEXT ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO.

 >> I CAN REPORT TO THE WORLDTHAT THE STRIKES WERE A SPECTACULAR MILITARY SUCCESSIRAN.

 'S KEY NUCLEAR ENRICHMENTFACILITIES HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY OBLITERATED.

 >> BATTLE DAMAGE IS OF GREATINTEREST AND FINAL DAMAGE WILL TAKE SOME TIME BUT INITIALASSESSMENTS INDICATE ALL THREE SITES SUSTAINED EXTREMELYSEVERE DAMAGE AND DESTRUCTION.

 KAILEY:THAT WAS PRESIDENT TRUMP LAST NIGHT ANNOUNCING THE U.

S.

MILITARY ATTACK ON IRAN AND THE CHAIR OF THE JOINT CHIEFS OFSTAFF THIS MORNING PROVIDING AN EARLY ASSESSMENT OF THE DAMAGE.

AND BACK WITH US NOW ON THIS ESPECIALLY EDITION OF "BALANCEOF POWER," LIVE FROM THE NORTH LAWN OF THEWHITE HOUSE IS TYLER.

 THERE IS STILL MUCH WE DON'TKNOW ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THE DAMAGE THAT THE U.

S.

WAS ABLE TO INFLICT ON IRAN'S NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES BUT WHATELSE HAVE WE LEARNED THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY? REPORTER:A U.

S.

 OFFICIAL TELLS US PRESIDENTTRUMP HAS SPENT THE DAY WORKING AT THE WHITE HOUSE BUT ITDOESN'T MEAN THAT WE HAVEN'T HEARD FROM THE PRESIDENT.

HE DID COMMENT CALLING IT MONUMENTAL ABOUT THE DAMAGE ANDHE ALSO CONFIRMED THAT THE BE TWO PILOTS ARE BACK AT THEIRHOME BASE IN MISSOURI.

 AND IN A THIRD POST, IT ISWORTH REITERATING, HE DID MENTION THE WORDS "REGIMECHANGE" IN A POST THOUGH IT DOES UNCLEAR UNDER WHATCIRCUMSTANCES THE U.

S.

 REALLY GETS BEHIND THAT IDEAOUT.

 THOSE ARE THE THINGS WE ARE WATCHING AT THIS HOUR BUT ITCOMES AGAINST AN IMPORTANT BACKDROP OF HOW IRAN IS GOINGTO RETALIATE HERE AND THAT IS SOMETHING THE WHITE HOUSE HASSAID THEY ARE PREPARED FOR AND WATCHING CLOSELY PARTICULARLYWHEN IT COMES TO U.

S.

 PERSONNEL IN THE REGION.

OUR BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE ANALYSTS SAY THERE ARE THREEWAYS IT COULD GO.

 A CALIBRATED RESPONSE FROM IRANWHICH COULD LOOK LIKE IT LESS THE U.

S.

KNOW THE TARGETS THEY ARE GOING AFTER, OR A CALIBRATED RESPONSEAND NO CEASE-FIRE.

 PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID HE WOULDNOT BE IN FAVOR OF A CEASE FIRE BUT WANTS UNCONDITIONALSURRENDER.

 THE THIRD OPTION WOULD BE THATIRAN HITS BACK HARD.

 THERE ARE THREE WAYS WE AREWATCHING.

 THEY COULD BE GOING AFTERENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE REGION, GOING AFTER THE U.

S.

ASSETS, THE THIRD WOULD BE CLOSING OR IMPAIRMENT OFSHIPMENT THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

THAT WOULD BE A BIG DEVELOPMENT FOR WHAT IT COULD MEAN FORGLOBAL OIL SHIPMENT TO THOSE EXPORTS AND THE SUPPLIES GOINGFORWARD.

 JOE: AND SOMETHING JOHN BOLTONINDICATED EARLIER IN THE HOUR WOULD NOT BE SUCCESSFUL FORIRAN IF IT TRIED TO DO IT.

 WE WERE SHOWING VIDEO OFPRESIDENT TRUMP LATE LAST NIGHT WITH THE DEFENSE SECRETARY, THESECRETARY OF STATE IN THE WHITE HOUSE MAKING THIS ANNOUNCEMENT.

WE HAVE NOT HEARD FROM OR SEEN HIM TODAY.

DOES HE HAVE ANY PUBLIC EVENTS SCHEDULED FOR THIS EVENING OREARLY TOMORROW? REPORTER: WE HAVE NOT SEEN HIM PUBLICLY.

WE WILL SEE WHAT AGENDA ITEMS GET ON HIS SCHEDULE.

WE ARE WAITING TO HEAR ABOUT THE NATO SUMMIT.

OUR EUROPEAN ALLIES HAVE BEEN LOBBYING THE WHITE HOUSE SOTHEY CAN PLAY A ROLE IN TRYING TO GET IRAN TO THE NEGOTIATINGTABLE WHEN IT COMES TO SOME SORT OF DEAL.

LAST WEEK PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID IRAN DID NOT WANT TO TALK TOEUROPE TO DEEPEN THE DIVIDE WE ARE STARTING TO SEE COME ABOUT.

EARLIER TODAY THE PRESIDENT DID HAVE A PHONE CALL WITH HIS U.

K.

COUNTERPART.

 JOE: SUNDAY DUTY AT THE WHITE HOUSEFOR BLOOMBERG'S TYLER KENDALL.

 WE LOOK AT MARKET REACTION.

ROMAINE BOSTICK WORLD HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK.

FUTURES ARE OPEN.

 IF YOU WERE TO ASK ANYONE HOWWALL STREET WOULD REACT AFTER THE U.

S.

DECIDED TO DIRECTLY ATTACK IRAN, THE THOUGHT WOULD BE--MORE SEVERE THAN THIS.

 >> WE HAD A TASTE OF THIS WHENISRAEL FIRST ATTACKED IRAN.

 I THINK THE PLAYBOOK THAT WILLPLAY OUT TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY COULD BE A REPEAT OFTHAT.

 A KNEE-JERK REACTION WHERE RISKASSETS GET SOLD OFF AND HAVEN ASSETS GET BOUGHT.

THE RE-THINK IS ABOUT THE IDEA OF IF THIS IS A REGIONALCONFLICT THAT WILL REMAIN REGIONAL OR SOMETHING THATCOULD BROADEN OUT TO HIT U.

S.

 ASSETS OR SOMETHING BEYOND THEMIDDLE EAST.

 IF THAT WERE THE CASE YOU WOULD PROBABLY SEE AMORE SEVERE REACTION.

 OIL PRICES DID MOVE HIGHER BYABOUT 4%.

 IT PARED BACK SOME OF THOSEGAINS BUT STILL UP 3%.

 BRENT CRUDE HAS NOT TRADEDABOVE $80 A BARREL SINCE EARLY THIS YEAR BUT IT DID THAT EARLYIN THE SESSION.

 AND WHAT WILL DICTATE WHETHERIT STICKS AT $80 OR GOES BEYOND THAT WILL BE DETERMINED BY WHATHAPPENS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

 QUICKLY I WANT TO DRAW YOURATTENTION BACK TO EQUITIES.

 THERE IS A CONTRARIAN BET OUTTHERE AND THAT IS THAT RIGHT NOW, IF YOU ARE ABLE TO GETCONFIRMATION FROM A CREDIBLE SOURCE THAT THE NUCLEAR THREAT OF IRAN WAS OBLITERATED ORSIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERED, THAT WOULD REMOVE ONE OF THE BIGGESTRISKS TO MIDDLE EAST STABILITY IN YEARS AND THAT POTENTIALLYCOULD BE A NET POSITIVE FOR STOCKS.

AND THE CASE AND POINT IS THE BENCHMARK INDEX IN ISRAEL, THETEL AVIV 35, THAT CLOSED TODAY ON A SIX-DAY RUN AT A RECORDHIGH.

 KAILEY: THAT IS AN EXCELLENT POINT ANDWHEN WE CONSIDER OTHER ASSET CLASSES, I WONDER WHAT WEEXPECT TO SEE IN U.

S.

 TREASURIES KNOWING THEY ARESEEN AS A SAFE HAVEN.

 BUT THERE IS A CONCERN THATHIGHER ENERGY PRICES COULD LEAD TO HIGHER INFLATION RISK THATCOULD SEND BONDS IN ANOTHER DIRECTION.

 >> THE TREASURY MARKET WILL BETHE JUNK AGAIN.

 IT IS NOT JUST WHAT ISHAPPENING IN THE MIDDLE EAST BUT ALSO THE FISCAL SITUATIONIN THE U.

S.

 AND THE IDEA OF ECONOMICCONDITIONS AND INFLATION CONDITIONS.

WHETHER THE MIDDLE EAST SITUATION FEEDS INTO THAT, WEWILL SEE.

 THE NUMBERS ON YOUR SCREEN --THIS IS AN INCREDIBLY MUTED MARKET.

THE FULL SESSION DOES NOT OPEN FOR ANOTHER HOUR AND A HALF INTHE U.

S.

 FUTURES AS REPRESENTED BY TYA,IT TRACKS LONG DATED BONDS ON YOUR SCREEN, THE ACTIVITY ISVERY LOW VOLUME OUR PRICE CHANGE.

 -- FOR PRICE CHANGE.

 JOE:WHAT YOU SAID WAS FASCINATING POINTING TO STOCKS IN ISRAEL.

IF WE SHOW UP TOMORROW AND STILL DO NOT KNOW FOR SURE,DOES THE MARKET HOLD ITS BREATH UNTIL WE FIND OUT THE ACTUALDAMAGE ASSESSMENT IN IRAN? >> I SPOKE TO ANALYSTS THISAFTERNOON AND THEY ARE WATCHING FOR IRAN'S RESPONSE IF AT ALLAND HOW SEVERE CAN IT BE.

 THE OTHER THING WAS TO KEEP ANEYE ON THE IDEA OF TRADE FLOWS.

 SHIPS COMING IN AND OUT OF THESTRAIT OF HORMUZ OR AROUND THE RED SEA OR THE HORN OF AFRICA.

DISRUPTIONS THERE WOULD BE CAUSE FOR ALARM.

YOU WOULD SEE THAT PLAY OUT IN THE COMMODITY SPACE WHICH WOULDTRICKLE OVER INTO FX AND EVENTUALLY INTO EQUITIES.

SHORT OF THAT THE CONSENSUS IS THERE WOULD BE SOFTNESS ONMONDAY IN THE CASH SESSION BUT THAT COULD BE BOUGHT IN THESAME WAY THAT WE SAW STOCKS GET BOUGHT AFTER THE SELLOFF ONJUNE 13.

 KAILEY: BLOOMBERG'S ROMAINE BOSTICK INNEW YORK FOR US.

 THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ -- WEHEARD ABOUT THAT FROM MARCO RUBIO DURING AN INTERVIEW ONFACE THE NATION EARLIER TODAY.

 >> THE FIRST PEOPLE THAT SHOULDBE ANGRY ARE THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT BECAUSE A LOT OFTHEIR OIL COMES THROUGH.

 THEY SHOULD BE THE FIRST ONESAT SAYING THAT IF THEY MIND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, THEY WILL PAYA HUGE PRICE.

 IT WILL HAVE IMPACT ON US BUT ALOT MORE ON THE REST OF THE WORLD.

IT WOULD BE A SUICIDAL MOVE ON THEIR PART.

 KAILEY:JOINING US NOW FOR MORE IS BOB MCNALLY.

 HE WAS ALSO A WHITE HOUSEENERGY ADVISOR TO PRESIDENT GEORGE W.

 BUSH.

WELCOME BACK TO BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO.

I DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU THINK OF THE PROBABILITY OF IRANCHOKING OFF THE STRAIT, BUT DO THEY HAVE DISRUPTIVE SECONDARYOPTIONS? >> I THINK IRAN WILL BECAUTIOUS AND CAREFUL ABOUT ATTEMPTING TO FULLY DISRUPT THE18 MILLION BARRELS A DAY OF OIL, 20% IT GOT 20% OF TRADEDLNG THAT GOES THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

THEY HAVE THE MEANS TO DO IT BUT I THINK THE SECRETARY ISRIGHT THAT THEY WILL BE RELUCTANT TO DO THAT.

THEY HAVE OTHER OPTIONS.

 IN SEPTEMBER, 2019, THEY DID ADEMONSTRATION ATTACK ON THE MOST IMPORTANT INFRASTRUCTUREIN THE WORLD, THE SAUDI STABILIZATION PLANT.

THAT SUNDAY WE HAD THE BIGGEST OPEN EVER IN ASIA.

THEY COULD ALSO HAVE PROXIES HARASS OR ATTACK SHIPS HERE ANDTHERE WITHOUT A FULL-BLOWN ATTEMPT TO DISRUPT ALL OF THESTRAIT OF HORMUZ TRAFFIC.

 THEY HAVE OPTIONS TO FLASH IFNOT PLAY THE OIL CARD.

 JOE: YOU WERE WITH US A WEEK AGOTOMORROW SETTING THE TABLE FOR WHAT WAS ABOUT TO HAPPENS HERE.

YOU TALKED ABOUT THESE POSSIBILITIES.

WE HAVE SEEN OIL BEHAVE PRETTY WELL SINCE THEN.

IS THIS MARKET WHISTLING PAST THE GRAVEYARD OR IS THATPRICING IN THE RISK WE ARE FACING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OFWEEKS? >> I THINK WE SEE AN OIL MARKET.

AS WE DISCUSSED IS PRETTY INURED TO GEOPOLITICALDISRUPTIONS.

 OVER THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS WEHAVE HAD FALSE ALARMS.

 THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE ANDTHEN THE OIL PRICES SPIKED BUT THERE WAS NO DISRUPTION ANDTHEY SOLD OFF.

 TRADERS ARE STARTING TO THINKTHERE IS NOTHING HERE.

 WE ARE UP $10 A BARREL SINCETHE WAR STARTED AND NOW A LITTLE MORE.

I THINK THERE IS AN APPROPRIATE AMOUNT OF RISK IN THE MARKETRIGHT NOW.

 TRADERS ARE HOLDING THEIRBREATH WAITING TO SEE IF ISRAEL AND IRANEXPAND THE CONFLICT BEYOND MILITARY AND POLITICAL TARGETSINTO TRADED ENERGY.

 SO FAR, NO ONE HAS PULLED THETRIGGER.

 IF THEY DON'T I CAN SEE THEPRICE REVERSING.

 KAILEY: WHEN WE CONSIDER THAT, WHATKIND OF SPARE CAPACITY ELSEWHERE THAT DOESN'T HAVE TONAVIGATE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ OR IS VULNERABLE TO ANY KIND OFIRANIAN RETALIATION IS THERE OUT THERE FOR OTHER OILPRODUCERS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE UP SOME OF THE GAP ATLEAST? >> ALL OF THE SPARE CAPACITY IS INSIDE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ,MAINLY INSIDE SAUDI ARABIA, UAE, IRAQ AND KUWAIT.

THERE ARE SOME OPTIONS TO REDIRECT BARRELS AROUND THESTRAIT OF HORMUZ.

 THERE IS AN USED WESTECHPIPELINE IN SAUDI ARABIA.

 THEY ARE USING A LITTLE BIT OFIT NOW.

 YOU WAY HE HAS A NEW PIPELINE.

-- UAE HAS A NEW PIPELINE.

 OUT OF THE 14 MILLION BARRELS ADAY OF JUST CRUDE, MAYBE 3-4 MILLION BARRELS A DAY COULD BEREDIRECTED AROUND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

IN TERMS OF SPARE CAPACITY, IT IS ALL IN THE WAR ZONE.

 JOE:YOU HELPED GEORGE BUSH REFILL THE SPR.

 IF THIS BECAME A PROTRACTEDCONFLICT OR WE SAW A MASSIVE INTERRUPTION IN PRODUCTION ORSUPPLIES, WHAT KIND OF SITUATION WOULD WE BE FACINGWITH A SPR THAT IS HALF EMPTY? >> I HOPE AND EXPECT THERE IS ALOT OF RECONSIDERATION OF THE WISDOM AND BOTH PARTIES DIDTHIS INITIALLY OF SELLING DOWN THE SPR.

AND THEN PRESIDENT BIDEN SPILLED HALF OF IT FOR NO GOODREASON AFTER THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE.

WE HAVE HALF THE CAPABILITY WE WOULD OTHERWISE AND WE ARE THEBIGGEST STRATEGIC HOLDER IN THE ROAD AFTER JAPAN AND GERMANY.

IF WE SAW AN INTERRUPTION, THERE WOULD BE A COORDINATEDSTOCK RELEASE BETWEEN US AND OUR IAEA PARTNERS.

WE COULD MAYBE DO 2 MILLION BARRELS A DAY.

WE HAVE 14 MILLION BARRELS A DAY OF JUST CRUDE AND SIX OR SOOF PRODUCTS AND THAT WILL ONLY MAKE A DENT.

HOPEFULLY THERE IS A SILVER LINING FROM AN ENERGY POLICYPERSPECTIVE.

 THERE WILL BE A RECONSIDERATIONOF LETTING DOWN OUR GUARD.

 KAILEY:AND FINALLY, KNOWING YOU KNOW THE GULF STATES QUITE WELL,THEY HAVE NOT REACTED POSITIVELY TO THE U.

S.

DECISION-MAKING HERE.

 WHY IS THEIR GREATEST CONCERNRIGHT NOW? WHAT ROLE DO YOU EXPECT THEM TOPLAY IN WHAT GOES FORWARD? >> THE GULF COUNTRIES ARE VERYCONCERNED THAT THE WAR WILL EXPAND TO INCLUDE A ON KEY GOLFINFRASTRUCTURE -- ON KEY GULF INFRASTRUCTURE.

 THEY ARE THERE IN CLOSEPROXIMITY TO IRANIAN WEAPONS THEY STILL HAVE AND THEY DO NOTWANT TO SEE THE CONFLICT BECOME A GENERAL CONFLICT IN THEREGION.

 THEY ARE VERY WORRIED.

 THEY ARE LAYING LOW.

OPEC-PLUS IS NOT CHANGING POLICY FROM AN ENERGYPERSPECTIVE.

 I THINK THEIR MESSAGE IS, WEWILL STAY WITH WHAT WE ARE DOING AND HOPE IT BLOWS OVER.

JOE: BOB MCNALLY, THE FOUNDER ANDPRESIDENT OF RAPPER HAND ENERGY GROUP.

PRESIDENT TRUMP'S DECISION TO STRIKE IRAN, A MAJOR REVERSALFROM HIS CAMPAIGN PROMISE TO BE THE PEACEMAKER.

HERE HE IS IN HIS INAUGURAL ADDRESS IN JANUARY.

 >> WE WILL BUILD THE STRONGESTMILITARY THE WORLD HAS EVER SEEN AND WE WILL MEASURE OURSUCCESS BY THE BATTLES WE WIN BUT ALSO BY THE WARS THAT WEEND AND PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANTLY, THE WARS THAT WENEVER GET INTO.

 JOE: LET'S ASSEMBLE THIS EVENING'SPOLITICAL PANEL.

 ASHLEY DAVIS, FORMER SPECIALASSISTANT TO THE SECRETARY AT THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELANDSECURITY.

 JOE RUBEN AT THE STATEDEPARTMENT UNDER PRESIDENT OBAMA.

 WE HAVE A GREAT PANEL ANDWELCOME TO BOTH OF YOU.

 ASHLEY, YOUR THOUGHT ON WHAT WEJUST MENTIONED -- NO NEW WARS WAS WHAT WE WERE PROMISED.

MANY POINT TO THIS AS AN EXAMPLE OF SUCCESS FROM THEFIRST ADMINISTRATION.

 DID THAT CHANGE TODAY OR CANPRESIDENT TRUMP KEEP THIS ISOLATED TO ONE NIGHT OFSTRIKES? >> FIRST OF ALL, GOOD EVENING.

NICE TO SEE YOU, JOEL.

 I THINK JOE, THE MAIN POINTHERE IS THAT HE FELT THE NUCLEAR THREAT THAT IRAN HADWAS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE AMERICA FIRST AGENDA.

THERE ARE CERTAIN MEMBERS OF THE MAGA MOVEMENT LIKE MARJORIETAYLOR GREENE SAYING WE NEED TO STAY OUT OF IT AND OTHER ALLIESLIKE TUCKER CARLSON AND STEVE BANNON.

BUT I THINK HE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPLAIN THAT WITH IRAN, A STATETHAT HARBORS AND FUNDS THE MOST TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS IN THEENTIRE WORLD AND THEN WITH A NUCLEAR WEAPON IS MORE SERIOUSTHAN AMERICA FIRST POLICY.

 BUT I DO THINK THAT HE THINKSAS MANY HAVE SAID THAT THIS IS A WAR ON IRAN'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND NOT ON IRAN AND IF IT STAYSJUST THAT, I THINK IT WILL BE OK.

BUT IF IT WIDENS INTO A WIDER WAR, THAT IS YET TO BE SEEN.

KAILEY: AND THAT IS A BIG IF.

 DOES THE PRESIDENT HAVEPOLITICAL SUPPORT AND WILL THAT REMAIN? >> QUITE FRANKLY -- WE HAVE AREAL PROBLEM HERE POLITICALLY WHICH IS THAT BOTH PARTIES HAVELARGE CONSTITUENCIES THAT DO NOT WANT ANY AMERICANINVOLVEMENT OR MILITARY ACTION ABROAD.

I SUPPORTED THE ACTION LAST NIGHT.

I THOUGHT IT WAS APPROPRIATE.

 THERE NEEDS TO BE ANEXPLANATION OF THE GOALS, THE LIMITATIONS AND WHAT IS THENEXT STEP FOR THE DAY AFTER? HOW ARE WE PROTECTING OURFORCES? AND HOW ARE WE DEALING WITH THESTRAIT OF HORMUZ? IT CANNOT JUST BE A STRIKE ANDTHEN MOVE ONTO THE NEXT NEWS CYCLE.

WE WILL SEE A DEBATE IN THE CONGRESS, MOST LIKELY ON THESENATE -- IN THE SAND ON THE FLOOR.

THE HOUSE IS THINKING ABOUT IT BUT I DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEESPEAKER JOHNSON PUT SOMETHING ON THE FLOOR.

THAT WILL GIVE CONFIDENCE TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE THAT THEREIS A PLAN AND A RATIONALE.

 AND IF NOT, THE ANTIWAR WINGSOF BOTH PARTIES WILL RAISE THEIR VOICES.

 JOE:THE SENIOR FELLOW WITH THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAREAST POLICY, THE PROGRAM ON IRAN AND U.

S.

 POLICY.

GREAT TO HAVE YOU BACK WITH US AS WE CONSIDER WHAT IS GOING ONIN IRAN AND THE QUESTION ABOUT THE DAY AFTER.

 >> I THINK WE ARE ALL WAITINGWITH BATED BREATH WHETHER INSIDE IRAN OR OUTSIDE, HOWTHEY WILL RETALIATE AGAINST THESE U.

S.

STRIKES AGAINST THEIR NUCLEAR FACILITIES.

IT IS REALLY HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW.

WHEN WE WARGAMED THIS OVER THE YEARS, THEY WOULD BE LOOKING ATSTRIKING U.

S.

 FORCES, U.

S.

 BASES ACROSS THE REGION, CLOSETHE STRAIT OF HORMUZ TO PRACTICE TRANSNATIONALREPRESSION.

 AND TO ACTIVATE ITS PROXIESWHICH HAVE NOW BEEN MAIMED IN THE POST OCTOBER 7 CLIMATES.

THIS IS WHAT WE ARE WAITING TO SEE HAPPENS.

THE CALCULATIONS COULD CHANGE BECAUSE THIS IS NEW TERRITORYFOR THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC BUT THEY ARE ALSO IN A FIGHT FORTHEIR SURVIVAL.

 KAILEY: AS HOLLY MENTIONS HOSTAGETAKING WE THINK ABOUT THE THREAT OF SLEEPER CELLS BEINGACTIVATED AND TERRORISM WHETHER HOME OR ABROAD.

IF YOU WERE STILL INSIDE THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELANDSECURITY, WHAT WOULD BE UNDERWAY TO TRY TO HEDGEAGAINST THAT RISK? ASHLEY: I WOULD ASSUME -- I WOULDASSUME WE ARE AT THE RED LEVEL FROM BACK IN THE DAYS OF THECOLOR-CODED SYSTEM BECAUSE OF THE SLEEPER CELLS THAT AREDEFINITELY AND IT HAS BEEN KNOWN FOR MANY YEARS IN OURCOUNTRY.

 JUST FROM THE LAST FOUR YEARSALONE, 1200 IRANIANS HAVE COME INTO THE COUNTRY THAT WE KNOWOF.

 SO WHERE ARE THOSE PEOPLE? CAN WE KEEP CONTROL -- IT ISNOT JUST IRAN WE HAVE TO BE WATCHING FOR BUT THE OTHERSPONSOR NETWORKS BY IRAN AND THE TERRORIST CELLS THEY HAVE.

THAT IS THE THING THAT IS SCARY TO ME THE MOST REGARDING OURHOMELAND.

 THERE IS DEFINITELY A HIGHALERT WITH REGARDS TO THE DEPARTMENT AND THE LOCAL LAWENFORCEMENT AROUND THE COUNTRY.

 JOE: HOW LONG DOES THE TRUMPADMINISTRATION HAVE BEFORE IT NEEDS TO ANSWER THE QUESTIONSYOU ARE ASKING FOR A BASELINE ESTIMATE OF HOW MUCH DAMAGE WASDONE? >> THE BASELINE OF THE BOMBDAMAGE ASSESSMENT NEEDS TO BE RELATIVELY SOON.

I ASSUME WE ARE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING USING DRONETECHNOLOGY AND OTHER ASSETS ON THE GROUND.

 JOE:CAN WE TELL WHAT HAPPENED UNDER A MOUNTAIN? >> THEY CAN TELL ABOUTRADIATION.

 IAEA SAYS NO RADIATION HASSPILLED.

 THEY WILL BE LOOKING AT -- MYGOODNESS, IF IT TAKES TOO LONG IT WILL CREATE MORE TURMOIL --BUT REGARDING TIMING, MUCH OF IT DEPENDS ON THE IRANIANREACTION.

 IF IRAN DOES NOT PHYSICALLYREACT IN THE NEAR TERM, I THINK WE WILL SEE A LOT OF PEOPLEMOVING ON BUT I CAN'T SEE IT HAPPENING WHERE THEY AREPASSIVE AT THIS MOMENT.

 AS HOLLY POINTS OUT, THEY AREIN A FIGHT FOR THEIR SURVIVAL.

 INTERNALLY THEY HAVE TO TAKECARE OF ENSURING THIS IS NOT A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THEOPPOSITION TO LEAN IN AND SAY THAT THE REGIME IS DESTABILIZEDSO WE CAN MAKE A MOVE.

 THERE ARE A LOT OF FACTORS OUTOF THE AMERICAN CONTROL THAT WILL BE DRIVING THIS TIMETABLE.

KAILEY: AND WHEN WE CONSIDER THE FUTUREOF THE REGIME, MULTIPLE ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS SAYTHE REGIME CHANGE IS NOT AN OBJECTIVE BUT EARLIER THISEVENING PRESIDENT TRUMP TOOK TO TRUTH SOCIAL TO SAY IT IS NOTPOLITICALLY CORRECT TO USE THE TERM REGIME CHANGE BUT IF THECURRENT REGIME CANNOT MAKE A RUN GREAT AGAIN, WHY WOULDN'TTHERE BE A REGIME CHANGE? HOLLY:FROM WHAT WE ARE UNDERSTANDING FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP'S PUBLICSTATEMENTS IS THAT HE IS STILL OPEN TO NEGOTIATING TO STOPPINGTHIS WAR FROM GOING ON.

 AT THIS JUNCTURE IT IS HARD TOIMAGINE THE IRANIANS SITTING AT THE TABLE WHEN THEY WERESUPPOSED TO SIT ACROSS FROM STEVE WITKOFF JUST THREE DAYSBEFORE THE STRIKES BEGAN.

 AND OF COURSE, EVERYTHING ISHISTORY NOW.

 TO TELL THEM, WE HAVE STRUCKYOUR NUCLEAR PROGRAM AND NOW WE EXPECT YOU TO SIT DOWN WITH US-- I THINK THAT IS HARD TO BELIEVE THEY WOULD BE OPEN TOTHAT RIGHT NOW.

 WHAT I THINK THEY WOULD BEPUSHING FOR IS SOME SORT OF CEASE FIRE.

ON THE TOPIC OF REGIME CHANGE, I WANT TO NOTE THAT WE ARE NOTJUST HEARING THIS FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP BUT ALSO FROM THE ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER,NETANYAHU CALLING ON THE IRANIAN PEOPLE TO RISE OUT.

WE HAVE ALSO HEARD THAT FROM THE FORMER PRIME MINISTER.

THE NAME OF THE OPERATION IS "RISING LION"WHICH IS A BIBLICAL REFERENCE BUT ALSO A DOG WHISTLE TO LIFE IN IRAN PRE-1979 AND THE TWEETSTHE IDF ARE PUTTING OUT IN PERSIAN INCLUDE AN IMAGE OF ALION IN THE SUN.

 THE WHOLE IDEA THAT MAY BEDONALD TRUMP IS JUST SAYING SOMETHING, I THINK THERE ISSOMETHING HIDDEN IN THE MESSAGING BUT WE DON'T KNOWBECAUSE THEY HAVEN'T TARGETED POLITICAL LEADERSHIP SO FAR.

JOE: ASHLEY DAVIS, I WANT TO TAPYOUR EXPERIENCE AS AN EXPERT IN HOMELAND SECURITY AS WECONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ASYMMETRIC ATTACK.

HOW PREPARED IS THE U.

S.

 FOR A TERROR ATTACK HERE ATHOME? ASHLEY: THE SCARIEST THING ABOUT ATERRORIST ATTACK IN THE UNITED STATES IS YOU DON'T KNOW HOWTHEY ARE GOING TO ATTACK YOU.

 ARE WE READY FOR THEM TO TAKEOVER A PLANE AGAIN? YES.

 ARE WE READY FOR SOMEONE TO GOINTO A STARBUCKS IN IOWA AND BLOWING THEMSELVES UP?HOW DO YOU PREDICT THAT? THERE ARE BIG THINGS WHERE WEARE BETTER THAN WE WERE 9/11 BUT WE STILL HAVE A LONG WAY TOGO.

 WE STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CAPABILITY AT AN INTEROPERABILITY AMONG OURFORCES.

 WE ARE GETTING BETTER BUT IT ISSTILL 25 YEARS LATER AND WE ARE NOT UP TO CAPACITY.

THE SCARIEST PART OF A TERRORIST ATTACK IS THE UNKNOWNOF WHAT THEY ARE GOING TO ATTACK.

 AND GO BACK TO COVID.

 IF WE HAVE A BIOLOGICAL AGENTDISPERSED THROUGH OUR COUNTRY, LOOK AT HOW WE DEALT WITH COVIDTHROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY AND THE WORLD -- ARE WE READY TO DEALWITH A BIOLOGICAL WEAPON? I'M NOT TOO SURE ABOUT THAT.

KAILEY: ASHLEY DAVIS, JEWEL RUBIN ANDHOLLY, WE APPRECIATE YOUR TIME AND INSIGHTS ON THIS SPECIALLYEDITION OF "BALANCE OF POWER .

" AND THIS CONVERSATION WILLCONTINUE TOMORROW ON BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE WHERE AT 8:15 THEYWILL HAVE A LIVE INTERVIEW WITH ISRAEL'S AMBASSADOR TO THEUNITED NATIONS.

 JOE: WE WILL BE BACK HERE ON"BALANCE OF POWER" THE EARLY EDITION AND BACK AT5:00.

 IN THE MEANTIME CHECK OUT THEWASHINGTON EDITION ON THE TERMINAL AND ONLINE.

WE THANK YOU FOR JOINING US FOR THIS SPECIALLY EDITION OF"BALANCE OF POWER .

" WE WILL SEE YOU BACK HERETOMORROW ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO.

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